Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Quarter Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 58 |
| Match Date | Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Final Fantasy VII - 36.04% Zelda: A Link to the Past - 26.66% Super Mario 64 - 21.98% Final Fantasy VI - 15.57% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
FF7 first place (16pts) - 49.76% FF7 second place (8pts) - 19.53% Zelda:ALttP second place (16pts) - 16.32% Zelda:ALttP first place (8pts) - 12.40% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Final Fantasy VII - 69.29% (26,535) Link to the Past - 28.72% (10,999) |
One match after the best match of the contest, we were treated to another doozy. The problem here is we literally saw the exact same trends the day before, so we pretty much saw what was coming once Mario 64 began stalling LTTP. More on that later.
This match was basically three matches in one: FF7 SFFing the hell out of FF6, LTTP vs Mario 64, and FF7 playing one-up with Ocarina. And once again, FF7 looked better this round. FF7 scored 40% in an SFF match with FF6 plus LTTP and Mario 64. Ocarina also scored 40% in an SFF match (plus FFX), but Mario 64 and Link to the Past are collectively stronger than SSBM and Pokemon RBY. You can argue semantics and formats all you want, but Mario 64 and Link to the Past would each beat either of the Nintendo games Ocarina dealt with. FF7's 40% was more impressive than Ocarina's 40%.
This said, tell me if any of this looks familiar. LTTP does well early and builds a lead of 800 votes. Mario 64 stalls a bit, but LTTP eventually builds an 1150 vote lead going into the ASV. Mario 64 comes storming back despite a lot of stalling from LTTP, but falls short in the end. This match wasn't quite the nail-biter Mario 3 vs Zelda 1 was -- Mario 64 was never really on a pace to win, got the lead under 200 with only 30 minutes left and lost by 245 -- but the trends were virtually identical. This is fairly strange, for two reasons. One, the games were backwards. Mario 64 played Zelda 1's role and Link to the Past played the role of Mario 3. You'd think two game names swapping places would yield a different trend, even just a little bit. But it did not. And for two, Zelda 1 vs Mario 3 is more or less a pure SFF match given both games are on the NES. Mario 64 and LTTP are both Nintendo games, but one was an SNES game and the other was Nintendo 64 -- 2D Zelda against 3D Mario, with both games being rather even in strength. A 1v1 with these two would be great, but as is they more or less fought for FF7's scraps.
This match proved LTTP was legit along with Mario 64, but it also hinted at GameFAQ's youth movement. As of this analysis being typed up, a "Do you still own an Super Nintendo?" poll is seeing "No, I never owned one" score nearly a third of all total votes. We're getting younger, and older games, no matter what series they're from, are slowly decreasing in popularity as a result.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
With two Marios through to the next round the question becomes... can we get a third? It certainly looked possible a couple weeks back when Mario 64 stunned the world with that original CT upset, but after coming back down to earth in R3 (which I still blame mainly on GE BTW) you've got to make LttP the favorite to advance here. That being said, there are still a few things working in M64's favor:
- Zelda obviously isn't a true RPG, but I still feel that its fanbase overlaps with Final Fantasy moreso than Mario- the platformer advantage makes 64 the best sore thumb candidate by genre
- LttP shares the SNES with FF"3", but FF7 also shares the PSX with FF"6", making Mario one again the clear sore thumb favorite by system. it's also got recency thanks to its many re-releases, and stands out an extra amount as the only true 3D option
- outside of Ocarina, Zelda just hasn't had any "wow" moments this season, while the Mario series has been scoring them seemingly every other day. clearly Mario's the one coming into this poll on a hot streak while Link's outings have been largely underwhelming
All that being said... ehhh, there's still a reason we consider LttP the #3 game on the site, and I can't possibly see it having fallen like CT and FF6. I'm expecting Mario to put up another solid performance but never really be in contention to advance here. Other than that, there won't be too much to see, except that FF7 probably looks very good for the second round in a row since it will get to beat 6 into a pulp.
In summary, my Awesome Oracle-Winning pred is
- Final Fantasy VII - 37.03%
- The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 24.95%
- Super Mario 64 - 24.34%
- Final Fantasy III (VI) - 13.68%
Seems a sure bet for another Top Five showing!
Next Day Review[]
Haha, this is too crazy! A day after Zelda puts the fear of the Lord into Mario with an extremely impressive ASV comeback, Mario turns right back around and gives Zelda the scare of its life during this afternoon. Makes sense I suppose, since both times "the kiddies" favored the title with recency, though I think in today's case M64's also seeing a nice sized DS re-release boost to help out with those younger voters. It's just sad that despite so many close matches this season none of them have had that "awesome" factor because its always same company/basically same era and so there's no bad blood between the two fanbases. Currently its looking like LttP's going to hold out for the win, meaning we won't get to settle that Top Three Mario debate once and for all. Ah well; at least we get to see if LttP can capitalize against two Marios where Z1 failed to against three.