Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 1 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 2 |
| Match Date | Friday, September 19th, 2008 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Link - 60.75% Shadow the Hedgehog - 18.75% Zidane Tribal - 14.90% Luke fon Fabre - 5.83% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Link first place (2pts) - 94.68% Link second place (1pt) - 3.14% Zidane second place (2pts) - 36.34% Zidane first place (1pt) - 1.92% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Link - 97.82% (41,968) Zidane - 38.26% (16,415) |
Whenever Link loses a contest, and his loss in 2007 was the stuff of legends, he comes out next time in total eff you mode. Spoilers, if we combine him and his series of games, there are only two spots where he failed to be a champ twice in a row. Once was back during the Summer 2003 - Spring 2004 era. The other was the Fall 2013 - Fall 2015 era. I'll let you decide which of those is more "legitimate", but the point is Link came out this year on some Patriots 2007 noise, only he didn't have the 18-1 choke job looming.
Link was winning this match. He was going to win this contest outside of a miracle. We all knew that. The real story was Shadow the Hedgehog's choke job. Most gurus have "their worst pick ever", and mine is probably picking Shadow to get through three rounds. I wasn't alone in doing it, but given what we know now it just sticks out as particularly egregious. But back in 2008, it was totally defensible. I swear! Remember, back then we only had this to work with:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1322-south-division-round-1-wario-vs-shadow-the-hedgehog
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1345-south-division-round-2-mario-vs-shadow-the-hedgehog
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1727-20xx-division-round-1-tidus-vs-shadow-the-hedgehog
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2869-division-2-round-1-auron-chris-ph-shadow
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2898-division-2-round-2-auron-shadow-ryu-bowser
We also had Zidane stinking up the joint in 2007, and Final Fantasy 9 didn't even make the field in the 2004 games contest. There was a lot of doubt as to whether he was more popular than Tidus, who went 50-50 with our friend here. So for those who look back and see the silly guru number of 92% picking Shadow, I swear it made perfect sense. I'll also point out that I knew a weird run was coming from this part of the bracket; I just picked the wrong character to do it! :)
When this match started and Zidane started to easily run away with second place, there was a lot of shock and awe setting in, but it was a pleasant shock. Board 8 loves Final Fantasy 9, so seeing a game we stan for pulling a huge upset was awesome. He built up a 2000 vote lead by morning, and once the morning vote hit and nothing happened, all fear of him being a choking dog like Magus drifted away -- and just wait until we get to that debacle later.
Shadow would at least go out fighting. He was down by 3700 when the after school vote hit, and would end up only losing by 3000. Which was great and all, but it would still end up going down as one of the all-time contest choke jobs. Shadow would never recover from this, either. As of this writing, in the years following this all-time choke, Shadow's one and only contest win would end up being against something named Kat and some useless trash from Persona 4 in a 3-way match. Beyond that it's just a lot of nothing, and it all started right here.
And for the love of all things, can we PLEASE stop putting Fails of in every contest? The games are fun and all, but Black Turtle is not wrong on this. The entire series is a waste of contest space outside of Tales of Symphonia getting like 5 minutes of run. Enough is enough.
Stats and Analysis[]
- Zidane advancing was the #5 most surprising result of Round 1
I was so caught up in the whirlwind of ZackFAQs in the last writeup that I forgot to mention Jade Curtiss, the TotA fan-favorite that despite his absolutely wretched performance last year... somehow made it in AGAIN this year. His performance was simply ghastly, and now we came to the main character making an appearance in this match... with LINK. With Jade being the logical Kratos to Jade's Lloyd (seriously, Jade made it in last year when Luke didn't), it was easy to assume that Luke would be made into the next Neo-Tanner.
Unfortunately, we neglected to take TSF into account - yes, The Sword Factor. With a big ol' slashy thing held up high and his mouth agape, Luke was a FAR more appealing option to the casual gamer than Jade's standing around and looking smug. And who knows, he might actually be more appealing in his own game, Crono/Magus style. I find it hard to believe that Xenogears' Citan is more popular than Fei, too. Anyway, Luke only performed like bad fodder here, instead of, well, Jade-level fodder.
Oh, there was something else here, wasn't there? Oh yeah - SHADOW.
This was supposed to be easy for Shadow. This was a formality, a measure of how well Shadow would beat up on high-end fodder before his confrontation with Zack. And he was going to have to pull out the stops today after what Zack did, but still - this was Zidane. Shadow had nearly beaten TIDUS back in 2004, and the unbeloved main character of FFX trumps the unbeloved main character of FFIX no question, right? So aside from the occasional upset rumbling that Link might affect Shadow and that Sonic Team sucks in the format from a select few people (ie yours truly!), this was going to be another Alucard/Liquid/Ness/Zidane. That was probably Zidane's best shot to advance in a match, and he couldn't pull it off.
Well, it all fell apart here. After the bracket vote wore off - very quickly, this board hates Shadow - Zidane was in control. BIG control. And he rode it to a very easy, very anti-climactic win to make the showdown... Zack vs Zidane?
There were some that argued Zidane had a chance here - and really, after this upset, you couldn't put it 100% out of reach - but it was hard to reason. FF7 vs any other FF rarely works out well for the other FF. Zidane would have to hope Zack not having his Buster Sword prominently displayed and some fan-favoritism would push him over the top, but even that was pushing it. As for Shadow, pretty much everything that was postulated came to pass... Sonic Team really WAS that bad in this format, and Sonic characters were basically Nintendo characters at this point. Because there was no way that Sonic Team was really just THAT BAD... right?
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Moltar isn't breathing down my neck tonight, so I'm going to deliver a true treat (and one that I didn't really get to do last night despite my promise): my full Oracle thought process! We begin with
Last Known Values
- Link - 59.90% (2007)
- Luke - Unknown
- Shadow - 25.05% (2007)
- Zidane - 15.71% (2007)
This is Luke's first rodeo, but since he's Tales and super niche and we've already seen Jade drop the ball with one of the worst showings in history, I'm going to just go ahead and assign him Jade's awful value from last year of 5.44. Now Link's value in '07 ended up being a guesstimate due to L-Block weirdness, but oh well, we know he's well over 50 and will be decimating this crowd regardless, so let's just leave it.
Shadow's value seems a touch high... but now that I look at it, he DID best Pyramid Head by over 10%, so I guess that's about right for him in R1. However he totally collapsed once the tougher competition arrived in R2, and Link's a one man tough competition group, so when you add in the Nintendo/Sonic Team crossover factor I don't see Shadow performing too far above the fodder line here. Zidane's 16 is based off that really disappointing performance he had against Alucard/Lake/Ness. I guess you can forgive part of that since he was against two other PSX characters, but honestly, I think that was a pretty good indication that the guy is high end fodder, in this or any other format. Still though I'll give him a slight boost because Square always brings its A game against big Nintendo.
So we take that all into consideration, adjust the values accordingly, throw it into the pot and after a few minutes of stirring we see...
- Link - 61.39%
- Shadow the Hedgehog - 19.05%
- Zidane Tribal - 14.13%
- Luke fon Fabre - 5.44%
Lookin' good!
Ngamer Says: Link > Shadow
Next Day Review[]
Oh wow... Wario and Zack I could have seen going either way, but I was so confident in Shadow that I nearly called that result a lock in my Impressions topic a week back or so. Quite the surprise, and it leaves the Crew 0 for 2 heading into... the most unpredictable poll of the entire first round! Uh oh!
External Links[]
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