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Round Five


Monday, November 17th, 2008

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 3304
Round Semi Final
Match # 61
Match Date Monday, November 17th, 2008
Link - 38.51%
Crono - 24.02%
Mario - 20.96%
Samus Aran - 16.25%
Link first place (32pts) - 46.50%
Link second place (16pts) - 12.53%
Crono second place (32pts) - 8.13%
Crono first place (16pts) - 1.31%
Link - 59.03% (25,326)
Crono - 9.44% (4,050)

Most of the excitement was gone by this point of the contest (or so we thought), because the rest of it seemed so predictable. The final eight characters were the Noble Nine minus Mega Man and Sonic, with Kirby as the random newcomer to this late stage.

The first of the two semifinal matches was incredibly boring and predictable the second it got set up, and really whoever got here in Crono's place was basically guaranteed a spot in the finals. Link was a given for first, we all knew that already. Samus was a given for last, though her getting SFFd twice should not take away from her run at all. Mario was pretty much a given for third, depending on the fourth character. We almost had Zack in this spot over Mario, which would have been legendary and shaken things up, but it was not to be.

As for that fourth spot, most people picked Vincent, and he would have waltzed to the final here. Some picked L-Block. The really smart people picked Crono. Crono wouldn't have gotten here without a rally and probably wasn't actually stronger than Vincent in 2008, but so what? He deserved that shit after everything he's been through. And when he got here, his oldest enemy was waiting.

But this time, Crono brought friends. He may struggle against Mario alone, but with Link and Samus here helping him? Cakewalk. Samus was happy to step aside, take last place, and do it all while leeching Mario's support. Link acted like Sephiroth in the Smash Ultimate reveal and skewered Mario('s overalls) like a fish. This tag team heel turn Nintendo leeching action allowed Crono to get the easiest win over Mario he'll ever have. This was never in doubt, nor should it have been. It was Crono's time to finally make it into the finals of a contest, and nothing was stopping him. Not L-Block, not Vincent, not Mario, nothing.

And no the 2005 run with the three strongest characters removed from the field does not count. This was the first actual contest final Crono made. It should have happened back in 2002, but better late than never.

Stats and Analysis[]

Back when we were expecting to see Vincent in this match up, it was supposed to be a gimme. Vincent had already proved that he had elite-tier strength, and with Link there to godstomp Mario and Samus, there was absolutely nothing stopping him from moving on to the finals.

Of course, Crono couldn't allow that so he decided to pull a Frog, make a wild comeback, and... change absolutely nothing. Anyone who thought Crono had even a remote chance of losing this match was either delusional or thinks that he has as much overlap with Nintendo as, say, Sonic. He was cruising to an easy victory and a well deserved spot in the finals. Not much else to say.

But goddamn, it's hard NOT to feel bad for Mario after this. Since day one, he's been held down by SFF. He had to deal with Zelda in the first two rounds. Then he got her off his back to run into Luigi in round three, and shook him off to meet the king himself and suffer through an embarrassingly close match against Zack before this match. On top of it all, he was given crap for sucking it up the entire time through no fault of his own. This was a horrible bracket placement for him.

On a side note, no offense, but anyone who considers this a legitimate chapter in the Mario vs. Crono saga needs to slam their head in a car door.

Match Trends[]


Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]

Match Prediction[]

Now it's time to renew the greatest rivalry in Contest history: Mario vs Crono V, here we go! But is there any chance of this being another classic? Let's review.

X-Stats from Round Four

  • Link - 55.28% (based on Zack = Auron)
  • Mario - 35.87% (based on Zack = Auron)
  • Samus - 36.30% (based on '07 Pikachu)
  • Crono - 31.50% (based on '07 Pikachu)

Pretty good set of stats. I don't buy Zack being at Auron's level in this or any format, but he WAS being helped along by triple Nintendo LFF, so that value should be about reasonable. 2008 Pikachu was probably stronger than last year, but he was held back by Samus somewhat and may also have been hurt by having to deal with two other RPG characters, so again, it's probably a decent enough value there. Looks like Crono's a pretty big underdog... but wait!

LFF to the rescue? Crono had better hope so- I'd pick Mario over him 1v1, and in a 4 way... heck, I think I'd even take Mario over him with Link in the match! (Considering how MMX couldn't keep up, and he's probably not much below MM, and Crono should be right at MM's level in this format.) But with Samus being in the mix as well, I don't see any way for Crono to lose this. I mean in terms of fanbases we're basically talking about LttP v SMW v Super Metroid v Chrono Trigger, and could you see any way that CT loses there? No way, and that makes me think Crono will win over those old school voters handily enough to do what Zack couldn't and pull ahead of the Nintendo competition to advance.

So if Crono advances by a percent or two to bring the all-time rivalry to 3-2, what happens between Mario and Samus? Ehhh, I think Mario still edges that one out without too much trouble, but I'd be shocked if he beats her anything like he did in '05. Samus was in a much worse position last year (with Cloud/Seph there as well), yet held up admirably against Link. I think she improves on that showing by a touch, which MIGHT be enough to give her a shot on Mario... but probably not.

And how does all this crazy Nintendo/SNES LFF leave Link looking? Probably not too good, I'm thinking. I realize he's the King of SFF and all that, but we've already seen Zack gash him for respectable percentages time and again, and Crono should be able to improve on those showings without trouble. Beyond that, I don't know... I just get the feeling that with all this wacky SFF flying around, something weird is bound to happen, and what could be weirder than both Mario AND Samus holding up well against him?

Alright, so yeah, feel pretty confident in saying Link > Crono > Mario > Samus, but my gut is telling me that something really strange is going to happen in terms of how the percentages fall out. Let's take a stab with... *smokes, pots, stirs, and hands out*

  • Link - 38.11%
  • Crono - 23.01%
  • Mario - 20.58%
  • Samus Aran - 18.30%

That looks... pretty odd indeed. Come on Samus, don't collapse!

Ngamer Says: Link > Crono

Next Day Review[]

Aww, Mario/Crono V didn't turn into the new classic we'd been hoping to see. Ah well, there's still next year. Galaxy and Brawl will be further from people's memories, and if CT:DS is as big as hit as it ought to be... alright, so I still wouldn't be backing Crono, but at least he'd have a shot at keeping it interesting IMO. Samus was SFFed down a touch harder than I thought and Link is going to overperform my expectations by a quarter point or so, but other than that things went more or less according to plan; odd, I was sure that much LFF would churn out something wacky!

External Links[]

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)