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Cb7-49

Results Edit

Round Three

Poll3292

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

Stats and Analysis Edit

Poll 3292
Round Division 1 Final
Match # 49
Match Date Wednesday, November 5th, 2008
Oracle
Expectations
Link - 47.22%
Zack Fair - 22.58%
Duke Nukem - 15.87%
Altair - 14.52%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Link first place (8pts) - 78.03%
Link second place (4pts) - 6.77%
Zack second place (8pts) - 6.96%
Zack first place (4pts) - 6.40%
Advancing
Prediction
Link - 84.80% (36,382)
Zack - 13.36% (5,732)

After the excitement of the previous day (<_<), we needed a breather - and while it's hard to NOT get all hot and bothered when Mr. UNfair is involved in a match, he did his best to oblige.

In all seriousness, this match was pretty much a gimme - Altair was going to need to perform significantly stronger than Duke to even give Zack a run here, and seeing as how he couldn't pull that off LAST round there was no way that was happening with Link sapping every drop of that casual appeal.

Anyway, Zack tore a nice percentage into Link as per last time, but without Nintendo and pseudo-Nintendo holding him back Link really swung for the fences. It's not like Duke and Altair are anything special, but they just got absolutely fodderized here. Link was looking more like Link 2k6 than Link 2k7, and seeing as how Mario got his face pounded in by the former it was going to be one tough number awaiting the plumber once he advanced next round. Though against MMX or Zack (or even Liquid!), no one could say.

It was also cool to see that our freeform pictures got off to a pretty awesome start as well. I'm of the opinion that we need to go back to one picture a match the whole way through a la 2k2/2k3 - some of these things were WAY too gimmicky - but if you do something, may as well go all the way. Round 1 multiple freeform pics, anyone? <_<

Match Trends Edit

Graph3292

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis Edit

Match Prediction Edit

And this election has robbed me of my time, so let's hurry on to

X-Stats from Round Two

Don't have them! I have to set up my spreadsheet to cover the R2 results once election fever is over. So let's rush on to

  • Zack: should look very solid as well; this is tougher competition than last round, and yet he might very well do the almost unheard of and increase his percentage now that Zidane's out of the way. I think he powers past these others in style, number 1 because Square's looked good, number 2 because Square always brings its A game against big Nintendo, and number 3 because these other guys are kind of chumps!
  • Altair: prime casual bait right here. congrats on surviving Marth, I guess (though I still don't think you'd have done it in a legit match without Lucario there wrecking him), but now that he's running into the teeth of the combined casual appeal of Ocarina of Time and Final Fantasy 7 it's going to take more than an appealing character design to save him. Altair for last, though he can still probably at least take a run at Duke during the ASV.

And converting those thoughts to numbers, potting and stirring should yield a result like:

  • Link - 47.92%
  • Zack Fair - 23.47%
  • Duke Nukem - 14.45%
  • Altair - 14.16%

That looks... rushed!

Ngamer Says: Link > Zack

Next Day Review Edit

Yesssss, now here's the Character Battle I love to see. Cloud and Link playing an interstellar game of HORSE- "match this!" "no, you match THIS!" Ah, just like old times! No matter how you slice it, Link holds the upper hand in the '08 version of their rivalry so far thanks to this performance- I'm seeing Oracles for him at 45, 46, 47... to barely fall under 50% all day is truly astounding. Oh, and Zack is once again putting on a very nice show of his own. Assuming Liquid doesn't crash the party, we could be in for one heck of a threeway between Mario and X and himself, something I never thought I'd find myself saying two months back.

External Links Edit

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)

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