Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 5 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 17 |
| Match Date | Wednesday, September 19th, 2007 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Luigi - 47.47% Mudkip - 19.57% Pit - 17.67% Tingle - 15.07% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Luigi first place (2pts) - 82.75% Luigi second place (1pt) - 9.63% Mudkip second place (2pts) - 23.36% Mudkip first place (1pt) - 11.14% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Luigi - 92.38% (33,926) Mudkip - 34.50% (12,670) |
Any time the poll makes a neat little staircase on the results page, the match was almost always crap. This was no different, though the pre-match hype was still pretty cool.
Luigi was far and away the obvious first place winner, especially given this was our second all-Nintendo match and no one else could have possibly given him pause. But before the contest, there was a lot of debate surrounding who would take second place. A good case could be made for Pit given Brawl hype, a good case could be made for Mudkip given 4chan joke voting and overall Pokemon love, and you could maybe even make a good case for Tingle based on ZeldaFEAR. Then the Bidoof match happened and everyone realized Mudkip was getting second place easily -- though if you look at the Oracle predictions for this match it was still in the air about where the characters would fall. I don't think anyone was able to grasp the magnitude of Mudkip love coming into this.
He actually led the poll early, which all but sealed his second place finish. what was surprising though is how constant his percentage was all day. It was at or near 28% for basically the entire match, which is not a sign of being rallied but a sign of legit strength. Mudkip was for real, and if you skip ahead he got totally robbed in 2010.
He was stuck in a poll with Missingno, and even then he only finished 400 behind Scorpion and 700 behind Lightning. FYI, Lightning was the cutoff line in 2010. Missingno was a psychotic backstabber in that poll, shivving Mudkip for all the glory in 2010 when Mudkip himself could have been the "Missingno" of 2010.
As for Pit and Tingle, they were clearly overhyped. Not much more to say beyond that, though one could argue Mudkip would have beaten them even if they were stronger. But if you hold Pit vs Mudkip a year or so from now, it could be a tossup. Pit's a popular pick in Brawl, and he has a very hyped 3DS game on the horizon.
Stats and Analysis[]
- Mudkip overperformed by +8.14%, the #9 most impressive performance of 2007
- Tingle underperformed by -7.45%, the #5 most disappointing performance of 2007
- Mudkip advancing was the #5 most surprising result of Round One
this was another easy pick for me: Pit was Some Guy in a Trailer, and Tingle was... Tingle. Mudkip seemed like the obvious pick to advance, and the whole 4chan fad, stupid as it was, was only more reason to pick him. it's not like he was going against the pinnacle of strength here.
after the Bidoof match, everyone decided on Mudkip as a clear second place, and some thought it wasn't going to be close.. but whoa. if memory serves, 4chan wasn't even up when this match started, and Mudkip barely lost any percentage throughout the day. Mudkip wasn't like Bidoof at all: Bidoof collapsed after that first hour. Mudkip just kept going. not even the after-school vote could really stop him - at one point, he actually went up in percentage for about an hour straight. we were all so confused. there was no outrage here since it was just Pit and Tingle, but there was a sense of fear here -- with Luigi and Ganondorf splitting votes next round....... could it happen?
oh god
Match Trends[]
