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Cb7-53

Results Edit

Round Three

Poll3296

Sunday, November 9th, 2008

Stats and Analysis Edit

Poll 3296
Round Division 5 Final
Match # 53
Match Date Sunday, November 9th, 2008
Oracle
Expectations
Solid Snake - 35.24%
Mega Man - 25.68%
Weighted Companion Cube - 23.96%
Zero - 15.32%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Snake first place (8pts) - 38.40%
Snake second place (4pts) - 37.75%
Cube second place (8pts) - 5.84%
Cube first place (4pts) - 15.30%
Advancing
Prediction
Snake - 76.15% (32,671)
Cube - 21.14% (9,070)

Anyone could see the SFF coming from a mile away. Zero was going to get pasted. Snake, on the other hand, was a lock for Round 4, and would definitely get first place. The only question was the fate of LFF'd Mega Man tackling a 9 ton block of steel, and it turned out to be one heck of a brawl.

The match started out with Mega Man diving into first place, Snake taking a close second, and Zero getting pasted. WCC was just sort of there. Snake trades places with Mega Man in the next update and never lets go of his lead, while the other two straggle. Mega Man loses ground fast afterward, while WCC's Portal fanbase finally kicks in and pushes the cube up a few percentage points. In thirty minutes, the Weighted Companion Cube scrapes past Mega Man.

The Cube maintains a threadbare lead until eight and a half hours into the match, when the morning vote causes the brawlers to change places. Mega man keeps a tiny lead until about lunch time, where his lead hits an apex and falls to WCC. The blue guy tries to catch up at the very end, but he can't chop the cube's infinitesimal lead, and loses by 238 votes.

A member of the Noble Nine was taken down by a giant box with hearts on it. And there was much complaining.

Match Trends Edit

Graph3296

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis Edit

Match Prediction Edit

I've been so busy celebrating all day that I didn't leave much time for this writeup! So let's jump right on in.

X-Stats from Round Two

  • Mega Man - 29.54% (based on '07 Tidus)
  • WCC - 25.97% (based on '07 Tidus)
  • Snake - 35.99% (based on '07 Vivi)
  • Zero - 23.72% (based on '07 Vivi)

Pretty reasonable results all around there... Those are solid numbers, but we're going to have to bend at least three of them. First we'll have to lower MM and Zero a bit to make up for their shared fanbase- but which way do we go? Could Zero be able to rSFF his blue pal, as he appeared to back in 2004, or are we going to see a more standard SFFing of Zero, kind of like what we just saw in Mario/Luigi? Personally I'm leaning toward the SFF option... yes Zero impressed by surviving a high powered onslaught from Vivi, but let's not forgot how easily he was (apparently) LFFed by having two Nintendo guys hanging round in R1, or how he has generally disappointed the last few years.

The voters seemed to have brightened up this year as we move further into the bracket: they knew to drop Tifa in order to push Seph through, and were quick to drop Ganon in favor of assuring Samus a win a couple days back. If the Cube threatens, and I've got to think he will, I'm picturing voters once again coming to the rescue by dropping that Zero and going with a hero. Even so, I think he'll have a tougher time of dispatching this joke than Pika did today... this was L's 10th main page Contest poll in the last 13 months, 11 if you count that "who is going to win this year?" question where he featured prominently, so I could see how voters might have tired of the joke. WCC on the other hand is still pretty new and fresh, and has the more dedicated Portal fanbase to fall back on if all else fails. Even so... nay, just can't bring myself to pick the joke, not after today.

And as for Snake, well, he's going to destroy everyone, of course. We're on an incredible hot streak for Nintendo overperformances here in this round, which means that as the only Brawl representative Solid's going to have to keep the pace. Rock their world, Snakey!

A big Snake win, a tight MM survival, Zero getting pounded, that would look something like... *stirs the pot very quickly*

  • Solid Snake - 38.14%
  • Mega Man - 23.24%
  • Weighted Companion Cube - 23.18%
  • Zero - 15.43%

That looks... like Snake has his work cut out for him. But MM is no king of the Day Vote, so he'll pull it off!

Ngamer Says: Snake > Mega Man

Next Day Review Edit

Haven't been able to follow the poll today... looks like Mega Man went out to a comfortable lead this morning, and then the Cube went on a big surge out of nowhere? Darn these jokes! Ah well, here's hoping that MM can pull a joke-hate fueled Frog in these last hours while I'm out at the theater. But if not, eh, Cloud and Snake will cook his goose next time around, so nothing to worry too much about.

External Links Edit

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)

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