Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 1992-1994 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 12 |
| Match Date | Saturday, April 18th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 42.24% Mortal Kombat II - 29.56% Secret of Mana - 19.51% Shining Force II - 8.42% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Sonic 2 first place (2pts) - 32.34% Sonic 2 second place (1pt) - 42.94% MK II second place (2pts) - 30.33% MK II first place (1pt) - 46.54% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 75.28% (28,829) Mortal Kombat II - 76.87% (29,438) |
This was the first truly predictable match in the first round of this division, and it played out as such. There was minor support for a Secret of Mana upset per Chrono Trigger possibly SFFing it in 2004, and Secret of Mana was reasonably impressive in this match. At the very least, we can conclude Chrono Trigger scored a measure of SFF in 2004 on it. But in terms of the actual match, it played out as predicted from start to finish. Sonic 2 > Mortal Kombat 2 was a mortal lock, and the only thing the games were really fighting for here was percentage and momentum.
Sonic 2 may have won this particular match easily, but its performance here meant an easy loss at the hands of Link's Awakening in round 2. It needed to dominate this poll, and it simply did not. Sonic 2 was the third and final Sonic game we saw perform in this contest, and we could safely conclude the Sonic games were not up to par at all. 2 won this, but was clearly going to lose in round 2. 3 lost outright to Super Metroid/Super Mario Kart. 1, a game with a soft path to round 3, could conceivably get SFFd by Mario and also lose in round 2. Sonic games are simply not strong. That's all there is to say about it.
Mortal Kombat 2 actually replaced Street Fighter 2 [Long Subtitle], and performed fairly well. Not too good, not too bad, and a predictable second place. It was set up for an obvious loss in round 2, but this is still good given it was a last-second replacement in the bracket. It also helped prove something we've wondered for 5 years. In the 2004 raw stats, Mortal Kombat beats Sonic 2 52-48.
Here, Sonic 2 only beat Mortal Kombat 2 55-45. This isn't far from raw stat expectations per 2004. So either Sonic 2 wasn't SFFd by Mario World in 2004, or Sonic games just flat-out suck now. No sane person will still argue Sonic wasn't SFFd in 2004, so the conclusion here is obvious.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
BOLD PREDICTION: Tonight will be the least popular match of the Contest. Older games + no Mario or Zelda or Final Fantasy = incredible apathy on the part of our voters. There also seems to be quite a bit of apathy toward this match on the part of our Crewmembers, and I can understand why. Still, there are two semi-interesting benchmarks at play in this one. First, all 4 of these games participated 5 years ago (well MK1 instead of MK2 and SF1 instead of SF2, but come on, it's a horse a piece) so we'll at least see how wacky those '04 stats are and possibly get some idea which entrants have fallen off big since '04. And secondly, we witnessed a very similar match only one week back: Sonic 1 44%; SFII 36%; Civilzation 10%; Castlevania III 10%. How will these 4 compare to their counterparts?
Starting from the top, I think Sonic's in for a tumble from that 44- S3's ugly nosedive has me convinced that about half of S1 was apathy voting, and since Mana ought to maintain a much higher percentage than Civ 3 did there's just going to be less percentage to go around. With SoM, I think its '04 percentage on CT will be a good mark to shoot for. On the one hand I don't feel that Sonic 2 + MK2 + SF2 is stronger than Chrono Trigger alone, but on the other SoM feels like one of those games that would have thrived in the more cult-friendly low voter turnout days of 2004, which is why I just can't justify the MK upset. Shining Force will be blasted in the face and won't matter a bit; I can't imagine it coming close to Civilzation's final percent. And as for Mortal Kombat... as little as I respect the series, I have to admit it held up quite well on FF6 back in the day, and then just last month I was shocked to learn how well Mortal Kombat vs DC Universe had sold (despite me never hearing a peep about the game on any message board or ever noticing it in the Top FAQs). Between that and having just about the perfect match pic I've got no choice but to keep MK closer to SF's number than I would have liked, which results in...
- Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - 41.71%
- Mortal Kombat II - 31.07%
- Secret of Mana - 19.97%
- Shining Force II - 7.25%
Yeah, that seems alright. But here's hoping SoM puts on a fireworks display instead!
Next Day Review[]
I'm extremely impressed with how well Secret of Mana was able to hold up in this one- really put a scare into MKII during those Euro-dominated hours and I'll bet it could have been neck and neck all day if MK hadn't nailed such an appealing pic. Looks like SoM will end up improving by about 8% versus its score on CT; guess that game was its perfect poison after all! As for my BOLD PREDICTION from last night, bam, I hit it right on the head! This is going to be the least popular match of the year by a full 3 thousand votes, which is frankly even more pathetic than the lowball estimate I pegged it for. Speaking of pathetic, what the junk is going on here, Sonic?! After throwing together some quick math, check out the result you'd get from setting Sonic 1 = Sonic 2:
- Street Fighter II - 49.94%
- Mortal Kombat II - 50.06%
Nooooooooooooooo! Yeah, I wouldn't have bought into that result EVER, let alone only a couple months after SF4 sold (almost) a million overnight and is still going strong. Which means something wonky must have happened in both those matches, but I'm not even going to try to understand it... Let's just sit back and watch SF regain our respect while Sonic withers under Mario's gaze next round, then see both Sonic and MK reduced to ash beneath Zelda. All will once again be right with the world shortly!