Most Surprising Results

The Most Surprising Results in GameFAQs Contest history, based on what percentage of brackets site-wide expected them to occur.

Special Note: All 2007, 2008, and 2009 stats are based solely on how many brackets picked a character to advance, not how many had them to advance in the correct position, because SB's failure to explain the bracket more clearly resulted in nearly 50% of pickers not realizing that order mattered.

See Also

• Most Embarrassing Results
• Closest wire to wire matches
• Closest Matches
• Most Surprising Results of Summer 2006
• Most Surprising Results of 2007

Most Surprising Results of All-Time

Entrants who predictors site-wide gave the least chance of advancing out of this particular round (or in the case of a 4-way Final, least chance of finishing #1 or #2).

1. Draven (R5) - 0.73% vs Snake and Samus in 2013
2. Undertale (R7) - 0.91% vs Ocarina of Time in 2015
3. Draven (R4) - 0.93% vs Mewtwo and Sephiroth in 2013
4. L-Block (R6) - 0.99% vs Link, Cloud, Snake in 2007
5. Undertale (R6) - 1.17% vs Melee in 2015
6. Draven (R3) - 1.19% vs Link and Commander Shepard in 2013
7. L-Block (R5) - 1.66% vs Snake, Master Chief, Dante in 2007
8. Zelda (R7) - 1.66% vs Mario in 2018
9. Undertale (R5) - 1.68% vs Super Mario 64 in 2015
10. Squirtle (R3) - 2.33% vs Cloud and Leon in 2013
11. L-Block (R4) - 2.35% vs Snake, Sonic, Squall in 2007
12. Tifa (LB1) - 2.35% vs Sephiroth in 2018
13. Undertale (R4) - 2.58% vs Pokémon RBYG in 2015
14. Super Mario RPG (R5) - 3.05% vs Metal Gear Solid 3 in 2015
15. Charizard (R4) - 3.17% vs Bowser in 2010
16. L-Block (R3) - 3.48% vs Snake, Kratos, Riku in 2007
17. Mewtwo (R3) - 3.60% vs Cloud, Squall, Sora in 2008
18. Undertale (R3) - 3.73% vs Super Mario World in 2015
19. Red (R3) - 3.95% vs Vivi and Squall in 2013
20. Majora's Mask (R7) - 4.20% vs Brawl in 2010
21. Bowser (LB1) - 4.50% vs Alucard in 2018
22. Vivi (R2) - 4.61% vs Mario and Ganondorf in 2013
23. Final Fantasy X (R5) - 5.15% vs Ocarina of Time, Metal Gear Solid 4, Super Smash Bros. Brawl in 2009
24. Cloud (R6) - 6.04% vs Sephiroth in 2003
25. Xenoblade Chronicles (R4) - 6.29% vs Persona 4 Golden in 2020

Seasonal Representation

• Characters '03 - 1
• Characters '07 - 4
• Characters '08 - 1
• Games '09 - 1
• Characters '10 - 1
• Games '10 - 1
• Characters '13 - 6
• Games '15 - 6
• Characters '18 - 3
• Games '20 - 1

Most Surprising Results - 1v1 ONLY

The least-expected results site-wide, when considering only traditional 1v1 main bracket results (no Tournament of Champions, Battle Royale, or 3/4-ways allowed).

1. Undertale (R7) - 0.91% vs Ocarina of Time in 2015
2. Undertale (R6) - 1.17% vs Melee in 2015
3. Zelda (R7) - 1.66% vs Mario in 2018*
4. Undertale (R5) - 1.68% vs Super Mario 64 in 2015
5. Tifa (LB1) - 2.35% vs Sephiroth in 2018
6. Undertale (R4) - 2.58% vs Pokémon RBYG in 2015
7. Super Mario RPG (R5) - 3.05% vs Metal Gear Solid 3 in 2015
8. Charizard (R4) - 3.17% vs Bowser in 2010
9. Undertale (R3) - 3.73% vs Super Mario World in 2015
10. Majora's Mask (R7) - 4.20% vs Brawl in 2010
11. Bowser (LB1) - 4.50% vs Alucard in 2018
12. Cloud (R6) - 6.04% vs Sephiroth in 2003
13. Xenoblade Chronicles (R4) - 6.29% vs Persona 4 Golden in 2020
14. Super Mario RPG (R4) - 6.41% vs Resident Evil 4 in 2015
15. Zelda (R6) - 6.56% vs Sonic in 2018
16. Melee (R5) - 6.67% vs Final Fantasy VII in 2015
17. Undertale (R2) - 6.83% vs Fallout 3 in 2015
18. Brawl (R6) - 6.88% vs Fallout 3 in 2010
19. Melee (R4) - 7.16% vs StarCraft in 2004
20. Majora's Mask (R6) - 7.88% vs Final Fantasy X in 2010
21. StarCraft (R3) - 7.91% vs Wind Waker in 2004
22. Crono (LB3) - 8.20% vs Mega Man in 2018
23. Alucard (R4) - 8.70% vs Red in 2018
24. Charizard (R3) - 8.83% vs L-Block in 2010
25. Auron (R4) - 9.97% vs Geralt in 2018

* In addition to only being predicted by 1.66% of initial brackets, Zelda's victory in this match was predicted by just 6.88% of Second Chance Brackets, itself a figure that would be worthy of a spot in the top 25.

Seasonal Representation

• Characters '03 - 1
• Games '04 - 2
• Characters '10 - 3
• Games '10 - 2
• Games '15 - 9
• Characters '18 - 7
• Games '20 - 1

Most Surprising Results of Round One

1. Yuna - 15.40% vs Master Chief and Claire Redfield in 2013
2. Tales of Symphonia - 16.10% vs Oblivion, God of War, San Andreas in 2009
3. The Secret of Monkey Island - 18.97% vs Super Mario Bros. 3, SimCity, Tecmo Super Bowl in 2009
4. Sub-Zero - 20.27% vs Master Chief in 2006
5. Octopath Traveler - 21.29% vs Undertale in 2020
6. Missingno. - 21.94% vs Crono in 2010
7. Undertale - 23.38% vs Mass Effect 3 in 2015
8. Urdnot Wrex - 23.71% vs Pit and Cecil Harvey in 2013
9. StarCraft - 24.09% vs Halo in 2004
10. Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire/Emerald - 26.23% vs Grand Theft Auto IV in 2010
11. Mr. Game & Watch - 26.40% vs Lee Everett and Meat Boy in 2013
12. Chrono Cross - 27.32% vs World of Warcraft in 2015
13. Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door - 29.33% vs Gears of War in 2010
14. KOS-MOS - 30.09% vs Mega Man, Arthas, Diablo in 2007
15. Catherine - 30.43% vs Neku Sakuraba and Vaas Montenegro in 2013
16. Captain Toad - 30.55% vs Shovel Knight in 2018
17. Castlevania - 31.49% vs Halo in 2006
18. Portal - 32.29% vs Metal Gear Solid 4, Bioshock, LittleBigPlanet in 2009
19. Morrowind - 32.76% vs Warcraft III in 2010
20. L-Block - 32.77% vs Kirby, Laharl, Nathan Hale in 2007
21. Pokemon Trainer Blue - 32.98% vs Fox McCloud and Wolf O'Donnell in 2013
22. Sandbag - 33.03% vs Sonic, Magus, Commander Shepard in 2008
23. Tails -  33.15% vs Nathan Drake in 2018
24. HK-47 - 33.24% vs Zero, Lloyd, Jak in 2007
25. Bastion - 33.31% vs the Walking Dead in 2020

Seasonal Representation

• Games '04 - 1
• Series '06 - 1
• Characters '06 - 1
• Characters '07 - 3
• Characters '08 - 1
• Games '09 - 3
• Characters '10 - 1
• Games '10 - 3
• Characters '13 - 5
• Games '15 - 2
• Characters '18 - 2
• Games '20 - 2

External Links

• gfcontests.com - full prediction percentage breakdowns from every Contest