FANDOM


Cb7-31

Results Edit

Round One

Poll3274

Saturday, October 18th, 2008

Stats and Analysis Edit

Poll 3274
Division 8
Match # 31
Match Date Saturday, October 18th, 2008
Oracle
Expectations
Sephiroth - 50.81%
Tifa Lockhart - 23.90%
Ratchet - 13.46%
Nana - 11.85%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Sephiroth first place (2pts) - 80.23%
Sephiroth second place (1pt) - 15.46%
Tifa second place (2pts) - 64.15%
Tifa first place (1pt) - 5.24%
Advancing
Prediction
Sephiroth - 95.69% (41,054)
Tifa - 69.39% (29,770)

Poor Tifa. I have no love for her as a character, but she came the closest to breaking the Noble Nine (and likely could have if she'd had any bracket support or if ANYONE had seen the near-upset coming). So what does she get in return? Misses the next contest bracket entirely. This year, she finally gets in again, and what does she get? Sephiroth of all characters on her for the first round. Seriously, this is worse than what happened to Aeris.

Tifa is a bonafide near-elite under normal circumstances, but with Sephiroth on her ass from day one what would have been an easily escapable division turned into a scenario where people contemplated if she would lose to Nana. Most didn't go quite that far, but with the up and coming superstar Kratos coming into the picture next round, she would need a heavy-duty performance to prove she had a chance.

And, lo and behold, she got it. While absolutely no one was taking the Nana upset seriously anymore due to the epic bombing of Brawl-only characters, Tifa was still expected to get SFFed into the ground. Didn't happen. She ended up well over 37% against Sephiroth here, and was breaking 40% for a good long while until his rise to heaven started. Considering Seph is basically BL these days, she ended up doing better than many thought she could pull INDIRECTLY. If Sephiroth couldn't affect her at all, was Tifa in the clear against Kratos?

Well, there was one problem - the competition was PITIFUL here. Seriously, Nana ended up below Ratchet, who is even more pitiful than Laharl when it comes to stinking it up in these things. There was just no option of worth for people that didn't like FF7 here, and that would be a totally different story next round.

(not to mention that after what we had just seen Rydia do, Tifa's TJF was a major plus here and she wouldn't have that next round)

Still, Tifa did as well as you could have expected of her given the circumstances, and proved without a shadow of a doubt she's still on that near-elite tier. Not too much else you can ask for.

Match Trends Edit

Graph3274

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis Edit

Match Prediction Edit

And now its time for... well, quite possibly the dullest match of the round, to be perfectly frank. After the excellent polls we've enjoyed the past week though, you can't be too upset about this small lull! Let's see what kind of dirt we have on these four.

Last Known Values:

  • Sephiroth - 49.25% (2007)
  • Tifa - 41.01% (2006)
  • Ratchet - 13.12% (2007)
  • Nana - new

Still stunned me a moment ago when I realized that Tifa missed the bracket last year. Well, at least she's here for '08 so we can finally get some questions answe- oh wait she's stuck with Seph. GRRRRR. On the plus side at least we get to make a Tifa/Vincent comparison, as Seph shocked me last season by scoring 76% of the vote directly on VV in their one matchup. Granted the presence of Link and Mario must have worked to push Vince further down, but regardless, I see Tifa withstanding SFF way better in this one. The thing to watch for will be if she's able to hold up well enough to seriously threaten against Ocelot or Kratos in the second round. My money is obviously on "no", but heck, the way newer Square has been performing this season I don't want to count anything out. Come on jugs, keep Tifa... afloat!

As for Sephiroth, well... he scores about double whatever Tifa gets, which ought to be about 70% of the votes in the match. Next!

As for Ratchet... ugh, just ugh. Next!

Call me crazy, but I'm expecting to see something decent from Nana tonight. Yes the casuals haven't been clinging to Nintendo as in years past, but when the only other options in the poll are Final Fantasy 7 and a PSX action star that's pathetically weak even BEFORE taking into account any possible Sony SFF, where else can those voters turn? This is the same kind of "sore thumb" argument I'm going to be making for Kirby against MC/BB/Raiden- there's a huge advantage to being the only cutesy/colorful/eye catching/Nintendo option in a room full of mature/Sony choices, and unless your name is Ness you've got to be able to capitalize on that. Now I'm not crazy enough to think this gives Nana any kind of shot at Tifa (Melee/Brawl/bright and colorful can only do so much for someone this incredibly weak normally), but I do see her destroying Ratchet with impressive ease. How does a doubling sound? Eh, that's a bit much... but a 60/40ing doesn't seem out of the question.

So if FF7 eats approx 3/4 of the votes here, and Seph eats about double Tifa's, and Nana like 3/5 Ratchet's, then...

  • Sephiroth - 50.59%
  • Tifa Lockheart - 25.16%
  • Nana - 14.11%
  • Ratchet - 10.13%

That looks sooooo good.

Ngamer Says: Sephiroth > Tifa

Next Day Review Edit

Impressive hold from Tifa today; this certainly makes things more interesting for Round Two. If she had really crumbled under Seph, say to around 20% or so, I think it would have been reasonable to count her out against Kratos, but as is that result has become a straight toss up in my mind. Man, aside from the one poll that L-Block ruins, this is going to be such a great second round.

External Links Edit

Previous Match       • Next Match

2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)

Community content is available under CC-BY-SA unless otherwise noted.