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Cb6-27

Results Edit

Round One

Poll2889

Saturday, September 29th, 2007

Ulti's Analysis Edit

Poll 2889
Division 7
Match # 27
Match Date Saturday, September 29th, 2007
Oracle
Expectations
Snake - 54.84%
Nightmare - 18.43%
Vyse - 15.24%
Rayman - 11.50%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Snake first place (2pts) - 58.49%
Snake second place (1pt) - 37.11%
Nightmare second place (2pts) - 26.55%
Nightmare first place (1pt) - 25.44%
Advancing
Prediction
Snake - 95.60% (35,108)
Nightmare - 51.99% (19,093)

This was our second to last match of round 1 involving a Noble Nine character. Their percentages in chronological order, just for reference:

Mega Man - 50.49%
Samus - 51.75%
Cloud - 61.24%
Sephiroth - 55.23%
Mario - 57.91%
Link - 70.5%
Crono - 48.18%
Snake - 57.88%
Sonic - 39.64%

It's not really meaningful, but it's cool how the percentages almost exactly line up their current order of strength. Link > Cloud > Mario > Snake > Sephiroth > Samus > Mega Man > Crono > Sonic is the order here, and you could probably switch Sonic and Crono around but not much else. And yeah, I do think Mario could take Snake or Seph heads-up. I was going to bring this up during Sonic's round 1 writeup, but Sub-Zero did well there so there's actually something else to talk about it.

As for this match, it went exactly as expected. Snake dominated, Rayman came in last and Nightmare easily won second place. A lot of Vyse fans made the argument about an absolute voting value or something, and how his fans wouldn't let him lose a close match, something to that effect. The problem there is people keep underestimating how many fans Soul Calibur has. Nightmare is probably the strongest character from that series not counting cameos from people like Link and Vader, most people picked the match as such and it played out that way. Not much else to say when a predictable match does what it's supposed to, really.


Stats and Analysis Edit

this match got a good amount of debate pre-contest - Snake was going to take most of the votes, but Vyse had a so-called "hardcore" fanbase that would not abandon him and honestly, who cares about Nightmare? this line of thinking gave Vyse a decent amount of bracket support from board 8 - not enough to be the favourite, but a respectable upset pick.

unfortunately, "cult" RPG characters pretty much bombed all contest while fighting game characters were one of the most successful groups. by the time this match rolled around, pretty much everyone expected Nightmare to take it, but not this easily - Vyse put up one of the biggest bombs of the entire contest. it was the final fall from grace from a guy who, once upon a time, was one of our most consistent performers. it seems that age has doomed him into anonymity.

Match Trends Edit

Graph2889

External Links Edit

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2007 Contest Matches

Round One
Yoshi > Knuckles
Mega Man > KOS-MOS
Samus > Frog
Scorpion > Midna
Marcus > Kefka
Cloud > Ocelot
Auron > Shadow
Ryu > Bowser
Sephiroth > Meta Knight
Fox > Wario
Mario > Big Boss
Magus > Phoenix Wright
Link > Bidoof
Vincent > Zelda
Crono > Raiden

Zero > HK-47
Luigi > Mudkip
Ganondorf > Vergil
Master Chief > Yuna
Liquid Snake > Alucard
Dante > Amaterasu
Ada Wong > Balthier
Pikachu > Tidus
Leon > Vivi
Kirby > L-Block
Kratos > Donkey Kong
Snake > Nightmare
Ryu H > Riku
Squall > Aeris
Sora > Lara
Duke > Gordon
Sonic > Sub-Zero

Round Two
Mega Man > Yoshi
Samus > Scorpion
Cloud > Marcus
Auron > Ryu
Sephiroth > Fox
Mario > Big Boss
Link > Vincent
Crono > Zero
Ganondorf > Luigi
Master Chief > Yuna
Dante > Amaterasu
Leon > Pikachu
Kratos > L-Block
Snake > Riku
Squall > Sora
Sonic > Sub-Zero

R3 and following
Samus > Mega Man
Cloud > Ryu
Sephiroth > Mario
Link > Vincent
Master Chief > Luigi
Pikachu > Dante
Snake > L-Block
Sonic > Squall
Cloud > Samus
Link > Sephiroth
Master Chief > Dante
L-Block > Snake
Link > Cloud
L-Block > Snake
L-Block > Link (Finals)
? Block > L-Block (Bonus)

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