Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 1998-2000 Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 41 |
| Match Date | Sunday, May 17th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Metal Gear Solid - 35.31% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 29.09% Zelda: Majora's Mask - 22.31% Pokemon Gold/Silver - 13.76% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
MGS first place (4pts) - 32.02% MGS second place (2pts) - 36.10% Pokemon RBY second place (4pts) - 19.36% Pokemon RBY first place (2pts) - 33.01% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Metal Gear Solid - 68.12% (26,087) Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 52.37% (20,056) |
Not only did Pokemon collectively combine for 45% of the vote, but the entire poll scored 132,000 votes despite there being three first party Nintendo games. You can look at these very final numbers and see the trouble Metal Gear Solid was in next round. RBY held up well despite GSC and Majora's Mask in the way. Replacing Majora's Mask with Ocarina of Time and removing GSC altogether spelled terrible for Metal Gear Solid, especially given MGS can't pull off miracles unless it's dealing with low vote totals.
And this is just from looking at the final numbers. RBY stayed even with MGS for a little while, and MGS didn't truly begin pulling away until the poll was an hour old. If MGS had all this trouble with GSC clearly leeching the hell out RBY, how could it beat an unhindered RBY? The short answer is it wouldn't. Gold/Silver/Crystal and Majora's Mask are worth mentioning here, because they held up extremely well given the circumstances. Majora's Mask especially was an unquestioned bomb in the first round, but this match showed it had some bite in it and was perhaps SFFd to a huge degree by Pokemon RBY. GSC, despite a last place finish, leeched RBY quite a lot and cost it a first place finish. RBY would get a chance to prove itself without a younger brother around to suck up votes in round 3, but for now it had to deal with second place.
The true loser in this poll was Metal Gear Solid. It's rare you see a game come in first place by nearly 10,000 votes and look the worst, but it looked like crap here. MGS vs 3 Nintendo games and it doesn't begin pulling away for an hour? Only 33% of the total vote with Nintendo splitting three ways? Bad performance in every way, it just happened to land in first place.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
After RBY put up 51% you may have seen me playing around with some numbers in this topic trying to find a way for MM to pull back ahead in R2 until I eventually gave up (because I couldn't see G/S/C holding up well enough to make it possible). After all the nonsensical stuff this last week though, I just don't know anymore... Mario World made a huge boost on its R1 percentage thanks to voters rebelling against a half-Final Fantasy poll... perhaps Majora could likewise hold up better than we expect if people decide to vote against Pokemon? If Mario can do it we surely shouldn't count Zelda out entirely, especially now that its the only N64 option in the poll rather than just 1 of 3.
The trouble with that theory is how MGS is the much better anti-Nintendo/anti-Pokemon magnet, and since it was able to jettison all of the mature/PSX competition that held it back in R1, I AM counting on Snake doing the near-impossible and improving on his R1 percentage against stronger competition. Still though, I could see the Zelda name doing an okay job of attracting the non-Pokemon votes as well, and as I result I think Majora ought to be able to keep this closer to Red than most are expecting (though the end result will probably never be in doubt). Also, I get the impression that Gold will do a better job of avoiding SFF and Last Place Factor than people are giving it credit for- just a hunch, but I'm going with it.
Long story short, I'll say...
- Metal Gear Solid - 37.20%
- Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 27.18%
- The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 22.36%
- Pokemon Gold/Silver - 13.26%
Seems fairly okay, I think?
Next Day Review[]
Holy junk, the Pokemon Series with over 47% of the vote against the combined might of MGS and Zelda? In a match that's (somehow) going to draw over 130k votes and will possibly be the most popular poll of the season so far? This site is Pokemon-crazy!
But come on now MGS, you can't even manage 1/3 of the vote against what is essentially just two Nintendo games, even when you stand out like crazy in the match pic? For shame!