Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 6 Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 54 |
| Match Date | Monday, November 10th, 2008 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Cloud Strife - 42.69% Squall Leonhart - 19.29% Sora - 19.23% Mewtwo - 18.99% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Cloud first place (8pts) - 55.21% Cloud second place (4pts) - 29.08% Mewtwo second place (8pts) - 2.86% Mewtwo first place (4pts) - 0.74% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Cloud - 84.29% (36,163) Mewtwo - 3.60% (1,545) |
After seeing L-Block and Weighted Companion Cube back to back, we needed a rest break, and that's what we got here. This poll was literally over in 2 seconds when Mewtwo won the board vote over Cloud. Mewtwo actually stayed with him for a couple minutes before finally getting swamped, which led to perhaps the most boring match of the round. In fact, I'll just say it's the most boring match of the round outright, because the other seven all have something interesting to talk about. This one, not so much. It does make me quite happy given Mewtwo is my favorite Pokemon, though.
Only three things are worth discussing, and none are particularly relevant. One is that Mewtwo looked really, really good here after a really subpar performance in round 2. If you go back and look at that match, Midna was within striking distance for 24 hours. One rally and she could have pulled that off. Here, Mewtwo made up for it, which makes sense given the Pokemon sprite and him being the only Nintendo character.
Two, and I have no answer for this one, is that Squall can't SFF Sora but Cloud somehow can. In fact Cloud whipped them both so badly that they had a fun little leftover duel for third place, which Squall of course won. If anyone can explain how this weird SFF situation happens, please let me know so I can quote you. Hopefully we can get Sora into Smash Bros so he can finally get one over in the series against Squall.
Lastly, and most funny, is how most people expected Yoshi to be here in Sora's place and take an easy second. I mean it does make sense, don't get me wrong:
Mewtwo (2007c) VS Yoshi (2007c)
Mewtwo has a strength of 23.76.
Yoshi has a strength of 32.27.
Yoshi wins with 63.19% of the vote!
A win of 38,415 with 145,669 total votes cast.
But Yoshi never got here. I'm not making fun of anyone or anything, it's just fun looking back at the numbers surrounding old upsets.
Final point before I move on. This was one of the only good match pictures all contest. Uncoincidentally, it involved sprites. If I may have my soap box for a sec, I'm pretty much over people telling me I only like the sprite round because they think I enjoy pic sabotage. I like the sprite round because I like the sprite round. It's not difficult to understand. The people saying this never actually submit any pictures of their own, of course, they're just being jackasses for the sake of being jackasses. Sprites are beloved in match pics (outside of Solid Shit) and were never complained about by the vocal minority of whiners until 2010, which is of course when I started submitting stuff. Make your agenda less obvious, crybabies. You enjoyed sprites all along and anyone can check the archives to prove it.
That's the thing about picsmith stuff -- anyone can do it. If you think you can do better, be like me and go buy Photoshop, shut the hell up, and do better. I'd bust out the man in the arena line, but it seems inappropriate for such a silly venue as this. It does say a lot about people when they make complaints instead of content, though.
Stats and Analysis[]
- Mewtwo advancing was the #1 most surprising result of 2008
- Mewtwo advancing was also the #6 most surprising result of all-time, with the only results beating that are that of L-Block's 2007 Championship run and Charizard's Heart Division championship in 2010.
- Mewtwo overperformed by +4.17%, the #21 most impressive performance of 2008
- This marked the third straight round where Mewtwo defied expectations, having overperformed by even more in Round 1 and then underperforming in Round 2.
That match pic up there tells you all you'll need to know about this one. With three Square heroes going up against each other there was bound to be some massive SFF going around, especially with Cloud involved. Tagging along with the Square trio was Mewtwo, whose Round 2 bomb against Midna had raised concerns about his prospects of advancing.
However, Mewtwo's chances of advancing were somewhat brighter than many had predicted. As mentioned earlier, Sora and Squall were likely to be hurt by being in the same match as Cloud. Also, there was some talk of a "Pokemon boost" after Pikachu's surprising victory over L-Block earlier in Round 3.
Once the match began, it was clear that Mewtwo had put the talk of his Round 2 disappointment behind him. Cloud did his thing, Mewtwo capitalized on the massive SFF beating, and the match was never in doubt after the first few minutes.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
And now for what might very well be the best triple-threat of the whole season! Whooooo.
X-Stats from Round Two
- Cloud - 44.01% (based on '07 Midna)
- Mewtwo - 21.14% (based on '07 Midna)
- Squall - 31.38% (based on '07 Fox)
- Sora - 30.23% (based on '07 Fox)
The trend this round has been for our NN and other elites to redeem themselves for those soft R1 showings, and given that this is going to be a massive SFF situation, you'd think Cloud would be all set to outdo Link's powerhouse performance from earlier in the week. But not so fast! Square SFF can be bad at times, sure, but it still seems to pale in comparison to the kind of vicious Nintendo SFF that Link can lay down on the Warios of the world. So even though he'll be hurting his Kingdom Hearts buddies quite a bit, I can't see them collapsing far enough to let him take a shot at Link's percentage... heck, if he can even manage 45% I'll be thoroughly impressed!
Speaking of R3 trends, the biggest of all to this point has been Nintendo once again looking like the champs they've been ever since '05. Link, Mario, Samus, Snake today, and of course being topped off by that incredible stunner by Pikachu... which means that Mewtwo has no choice but to do great today! Yes, Cloud certainly hurt his casual appeal a couple weeks back, but I still think that much of that ugly result needs to be chalked up to Midna's decent Zelda appeal. I was feeling pretty decent about Mew advancing out of this one two days ago, but I feel very good about it after seeing an unhindered Pika unleash that full Pokemon power on L-Block. Let's go Mewtwo!
The only question that remains to be answered: Sora, or Squall? Well on the one hand Cloud figures to damage Squall a decent bit more, given how connected FF7 and FF8 would have to be. But on the other hand, he's not going to be held back by Smilin' Squall this time around, which in my mind is going to be worth a ton. Even it out, and I think I still have to give Sora an advantage...but only a small one. If he wins this, I imagine he's going to have to do so with his sick ASV.
So if Cloud ruins the competition but Mewtwo improves thanks to Midna's absence while Sora and Squall kill each other all day, we'd be looking at something along the lines of... *stirs in the pot for two minutes*
- Cloud with 44.51%
- Mewtwo with 19.09%
- Sora with 18.24%
- Squall with 18.16%
That looks... weird. But with triple Square it's bound to be, right?
Ngamer Says: Cloud > Mewtwo
Next Day Review[]
Haha, Mewtwo goes from 17% on Cloud to 23%... still on Cloud! Golly, I gave Midna plenty of credit for holding him down, but even so I didn't see any way for that crazy Pokemon to crack 20%, not with legit competition like Squall and Sora in the picture. I guess this is the ultimate vindication for the "sore thumb" theory... not that anyone should have really doubted it, but still, yikes.