Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 5 Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 42 |
| Match Date | Wednesday, October 29th, 2008 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Solid Snake - 38.31% Zero - 21.87% Ryu Hayabusa - 20.49% Vivi Ornitier - 19.84% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Snake first place (4pts) - 56.60% Snake second place (2pts) - 32.45% Zero second place (4pts) - 15.88% Zero first place (2pts) - 11.17% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Snake - 89.05% (38,205) Zero - 27.05% (11,605) |
Another match, another Noble Niner taking care of business. However, this was a much bigger deal than Snake simply winning a match easily. Every now and again in the stats topic, you'll see Leonhart4 and Black Turtle arguing about an old account bet. That happened in this match. Leon4 correctly believed that Snake would get an insane boost from the conjoined factors of BrawlFEAR and Metal Gear Solid 4, and that this would be the match where he started flexing some muscle. If you go back to round 1, Snake had to deal with Sackboy, Wesker, and Vivi -- three characters likely to leech off of him -- and the dude broke 50%. This time, he had to deal with much better competition, but Leon4 predicted Snake would finish between 43-45%. Turtle is a huge Mega Man X fan and thought this was preposterous, and you all can see what happened. Snake easily finished above 43%, which is a ridiculous number. In these contests, there is the Link tier, the 1A tier below Link, and then tier 2 where the lower Noble Nine characters live. This number put Snake clean into 1A, and Leon deserves endless love for seeing it coming.
As for BT welching, account bets are dumb and I don't blame the guy at all. Who cares if someone closes their account or not? We've had legitimately awful people on here over the years, and BT is not one of them. He's just having fun. He isn't threatening to blow people's heads off with shotguns, he isn't stalking people, he isn't a pedo defender, he doesn't make fun of the various users that have committed suicide over the years, he doesn't pull the trash Preston has pulled via PM, and overall he's not a bad dude. Contests are better with BT around, so good on him. Welch all you want, bro.
The actual story here was the battle for second place. I'll spare people the usual rant about how these being more important than battles for first are dumb, because this was just an epic match between two beloved characters. There was a tiny bit of hype for Ryu Hayabusa here, but deep down we all knew it would come down to Zero and Vivi -- and I'm convinced that if people didn't have Zero in their bracket overwhelmingly, Vivi would have pulled this thing off.
When the poll started, it didn't look like much. Vivi got some early love, and then it looked like the match would come to a simple finish. Zero beat the piss out of Vivi overnight as if Vivi were Jesse Pinkman, and the overnight is typically Square's best time. Match over, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-I7oZBn5q8
One would think this was done, given Zero had a 600 vote lead overnight, but Vivi inexplicably started coming back as the night wore on. But Mega Man X characters, largely due to the series having no love in Europe whatsoever, just DIE overnight. It's brutal to watch, and back then I don't know that most of us knew this trend. The Europe vote wasn't discussed much before geolocation stats happened.
Once Vivi started getting momentum, he ran with it. It took a little while thanks to sharing this poll with Snake, but he did manage to catch up thanks to the Europe vote and the morning vote. He caught up at 10:30, and Zero gave no resistance whatsoever as Vivi started building up his own lead. For the second time, the match looked over as Vivi flew ahead by 400 heading into the ASV. With one or two major trends left and Vivi being absolutely adored by people, it looked like he would hold on.
Unfortunately, we all saw what happened, and I'm still convinced it wouldn't have happened if Zero wasn't such a massive bracket favorite in this spot. Zero began the slow, painful, methodical match forward. He won the ASV, but not in convincing fashion. Most of the updates during his comeback were +5, +2, +10, +15, and the occasional Vivi push where it looked like he would hold Zero off.
But it was not to be. Though it took hours and felt like open heart surgery, Zero caught up. His major push came after dinner, where the perennial stall turned into a legitimate Zero push. When Zero finally caught real momentum here, the match truly was good and over. These two characters were stuck in the 200s for hours after school, but when Zero finally made his move after dinner he pulled off what would end up a 600 vote swing to ultimately win by 400. The 400 vote win wasn't really indicative of how close and how back-and-forth this match was, but only one of them could advance in this spot and Zero was it.
81% of gurus picked Zero here, and even though the board loves Vivi, they were happy to see Zero win here for their brackets. I will remain convinced that if Vivi had 81% of gurus behind him, he would have won. That's often how these things go. This ultimately set up a bizarre matchup between Snake, Mega Man, the Weighted Companion Cube, and Zero -- eerily similar to this match in 2007: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2922-tournament-quarterfinal-snake-l-block-sonic-squall
Lastly, for those lamenting Vivi's not finishing the job here, no worries. He would more than get his win back.
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5246-character-battle-ix-division-8-round-2-mario-vs-vivi-vs
Not only that, but he came dangerously close to winning a division in 2018. Vivi would be alright. He always pulls through. But this day was about Solid Snake jumping up a level, and Zero surviving.
Stats and Analysis[]
- Ryu Hayabusa underperformed by -6.54%, the #5 most disappointing performance of 2008
- Snake overperformed by +5.24%, the #12 most impressive performance of 2008
- Zero advancing was the #13 most surprising result of 2008
The most important part of this match, of course, was with Leonhart stating that Snake would be possibly getting 43-45% in this match, and that said performance would be enough to put him up into the Mario/Samus tier of strength. Considering how the Noble Nine had performed this round and that most people thought that performance would be more appropriate for Sephiroth (hello), this prompted one stats topic pariah Black Turtle to state he would close his account right then if Snake pulled that off.
Thus Snake started off the match getting just that, BT reneged, and there was much rejoicing and gnashing of teeth by all.
And to move on to the less important, non-Solid Snake related part of the match - is there any point where the Oracle DOESN'T mechanically side with their brackets in a close match, even when the logic points against them? One of the reasons why I prefer the superior Analysis Crew, but no matter how you looked at the match it was set to be a three-way fight for second. Vivi had done exceedingly well on Snake last round, and Ryu H had upset Zero in a squeaker.
The arguments for each were pretty diverse. Ryu H's supporters believed that he was simply the stronger character this year due to Ninja Gaiden 2, and that Vivi would collapse when stronger competition appeared. Zero's believers relied on the belief that Ryu H's bomb in the second round against Riku after beating Riku and Roxas COMBINED was no fluke, and that something similar would happen here. Vivi fans knew he was going to stand out among three badasses, and combined with his great performance on Snake from the previous round he was the guy to beat.
Well, one thing definitely came true here - Ryu Hayabusa, whether it be because of his casual fanbase, disproportionately badass appeal, or just because of something really WEIRD apparently Hayabusa commits seppuku at the first sight of Solid Snake. And while the twitching corpse of the ninja was apparently still enough to give Riku the fight of his life last year, Zero and Vivi are on a different level. He ended up with 14%, and had to fight all day for it - still one of the oddest consistent anomalies in contest history, I say, but now we know it's absolutely true.
That left Vivi and Zero, and Zero took control of the match early due to his bracket support and trademarked powerful Mega Man Early Vote. But four hours in, the inevitable happened - as it always does - and Vivi took control of the match in a big way. By the morning he had shaved a 600 vote lead to practically nothing, and the during school vote allowed him to build a 400 vote lead of his own. It looked like Zero was going to drop ANOTHER match that he should have had in hand, but Vivi's historical troubles with the after school vote finally came back to haunt him. It was slow and painfully methodical, but Vivi's weakness during the ASV allowed Zero back into the match, slicing away with Vivi's lead, and Mega Man's nice second night vote pushed him over the top into a 400 vote victory.
Zero did what we expected to do in the end, but in the very worst way for the Mega Man franchise to look. Losing to a character you 63-37'd and barely beating Vivi due to what was probably the most favorable picture outcome he could have hoped for - and now he was going to potentially kill his series' flagship character next round. The stage was set for an epic showdown between Noble and Joke, the winner gaining a berth in the quarterfinals.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Time to discuss what could possibly turn into the greatest fatal threeway in Contest history!
X-Stats from Round One
- Snake - 44.98% (based on Wesker '07)
- Vivi - 30.11% (based on Wesker '07)
- Ryu H - 27.52% (based on Pit '07)
- Zero - 27.10% (based on Pit '07)
Yes Vivi looked great, but I get the feeling that was largely anti-favoriteFAQs at work, in the same way that so many jumped off Vincent in favor of Falco back in R1. As with Vincent's match, I don't see that trend holding here for R2.
As I alluded to earlier, the last time Snake and Ryu went head to head, Solid came out of the match with 48% while Ryu couldn't even manage 19%. That was back when their competition was Riku and Nighmare; sub those two out for the stronger Zero and Vivi and Snake's percent is sure to come down, as will Ryu's... right? Well on the one hand the 360 has seemingly asserted itself and turned Ninja Gaiden into a better threat, especially with the ASV. But on the other, Snake figures to perform better than back in '07 himself, especially when drawing full MGS4 appeal with this picture, so shouldn't he more or less retain that ratio on Ryu? Not sure, but I've decided not to put much faith in the final result from round one and will be picking Hayabusa for a close last place in this one.
Zero's a bit of an odd duck. Sure he hemorrhaged up votes all through the Day and kind of embarrassed himself by giving Ryu the win, but how much of that underperformance needs to be tied back to the two Nintendo/Brawl characters who may have been holding him back? And if Ryu gets held back again by whatever killed him against Snake last time (badass SFF?), is Zero going to be immune? You'd think he'd have a larger hardcore fanbase than Ryu, since it would make sense for Hayabusa getting much of his appeal from looking like an awesome ninja. All things considered I like Zero to outlast the ninja this time around. But will it be enough for second? That all depends on...
Vivi! So cool to see him not wasted in this bracket, and sporting full-on Black Mage Factor in this pic, which is undoubtedly his biggest advantage. The more Snake dominates this match, the better Vivi's chances get I would think, as the Final Fantasy fanbase is probably the most dedicated of the three. He should also most likely do the best job of avoiding this "badass SFF" if that's really going to be a factor, as that's where Zero gets much of his appeal within the MM fanbase. All that considered... eh, I still don't feel good about backing him. Yes, he ought to have an excellent chance, but I keep coming back to that Falco result and others like it that we've seen in R2- just have this gut feeling that the bubble is going to burst against tough cookies like Ryu and Zero.
So in the end I'll say Snake with a good sized win (nothing like that '07 domination though) and then Zero just barely over Vivi just barely over Ryu. But I don't do so with much confidence! Let's stir the pot and find some numbers...
- Solid Snake - 38.20%
- Zero - 21.11%
- Vivi Ornitier - 20.68%
- Ryu Hayabusa - 20.01%
That looks... like a heck of a match!
Ngamer Says: Snake > Zero
Next Day Review[]
Awww man, what an awesome match. Ryu sure dropped the ball as far as the fatal threeway went (what the heck, Snake must just be that guy's kryptonite), but what a show Zero and Vivi have put on! When Zero got out to the big lead I wasn't sold- he'd done the same thing against Ryu before fading away, and Vivi figured to have the kind of huge night vote that we often see from FF8-9-10. But when it was four hours in and Zero not only had a huge lead but was still gaining, I threw in the towel on Vivi- no way you can come back from that without an MC-like day vote. Then I checked this aft and... Vivi was up by like 200, and gaining! I was amazed, but figured Zero could probably still take the ASV to pull out a narrow win. But then we were a full hour into what's usually the ASV, and Zero was doing nothing- still down a bunch, only going even, and since Vivi was sure to take the second night vote in any case, I threw in the towel on Zero. Then I got in from work an hour ago and... Zero back out to a big lead! This time around I'm holding on to my towel with a death grip; I've got no idea what to think anymore!