Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 3 Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 37 |
| Match Date | Friday, October 24th, 2008 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Samus Aran - 37.70% Ganondorf - 27.30% Frog - 19.09% Nightmare - 15.92% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Samus first place (4pts) - 72.30% Samus second place (2pts) - 12.40% Ganondorf second place (4pts) - 55.72% Ganondorf first place (2pts) - 9.73% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Samus - 84.70% (36,339) Ganondorf - 65.45% (28,080) |
This match was little more than heavy favorites taking care of business. Frog may have some magic against the likes of Master Chief, and Liquid Snake, and Kingdom Hearts's C tier, but Ganondorf is a bridge too far. It's sad to think about, but other than the contest Chrono Trigger almost won in 2015 (go back and look at how INSANE that game looked before the giga-rallies started), the game and its characters have gotten a little weaker each year. Frog's magic was long gone by the time this match happened, let alone when I actually got around to doing these writeups in 2020.
There would be no drama, no comebacks, no picture screwjobs, nothing. Just an easy, simple Samus > Ganondorf result that was never going to be challenged. It was a good breather after the silly Mudkip match, too, so it's not like anyone complained of boredom here. Every contest, much like every great wrestling match, needs the occasional rest break.
That's what this match was. A rest break.
Stats and Analysis[]
This, like most Samus matches this contest, was a low votal snoozefest that was only good for telling us if Samus would be vulnerable to any kind of upset threat by Vincent next round. That would require Ganondorf to hold up about as well as Zelda did to Mario, of course... and he gave very little confidence in doing so here. Samus blew him out by almost 20000 votes, and Frog ended up slicing him up but good during the night. It wasn't close by the end, but with the competition stepping up to Vincent + Falco/Scorpion/Gordon next round, it was hard to see how the upset was going to materialize unless Falco made it through.
The only other thing to really note here is that Nightmare fell apart like he did in Round 2 last year, becoming the next in a long line of characters that utterly fold when placed against real competition. And Frog hadn't failed us, which was almost surprising in and of itself - he did what he was supposed to do. Overall, this looked like it might be an omen for an okay contest for Crono in that he wouldn't slip again. But he didn't just need to stay constant - he needed to improve in order to beat Vincent in the quarterfinals, to say nothing of what the Block would do.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
We'll have to rush into my thought on tonight's battle, as we're running out of time!
X-Stats from Round One
- Samus - 32.86% (based on '07 Crash)
- Nightmare - 19.91% (based on '07 Crash)
- Ganon - 31.32% (based on '07 KOS-MOS)
- Frog - 22.29% (based on '07 KOS-MOS)
This is cool to look over because I feel its one of the rare cases where those x-stat values might be at least somewhat reliable; both Crash and KOS-MOS have been able to avoid LFF situations in '07 and '08, so we ought to be able to put a little bit of faith into the year over year comparison. Nightmare was the disappointment of the group in my opinion- coming in hot off Soul Calibur 4, yet he couldn't even entirely put away Crash? Frog meanwhile had his only good wire to wire showing since 2004, making it a no-doubter against KM when most had been expecting a shoot out. Nightmare's an easy last in this group and Samus should have no trouble getting first, which leaves us to discuss second place.
Heading into the bracket this was probably the only R2 result that I considered a "no brainer" no matter how you tried to twist it. Samus > Ganon, what else could possibly happen? But with the way Nintendo has been coming up short whenever LFF comes into play, and how Ganon took a pretty big dive once the picture came up last round, and how CT:DS has apparently been a real shot in the arm for everything Ct-related this season, I'm going to have to back the upset and say...
Nay, just kidding! Ganon will pound Frog and take this down easy. He has already stood up well against Samus directly, Frog is still Frog, and even if he were getting Bacondorf in this one I still wouldn't be too worried. As is he looks pretty good in that pic, while Frog will be lacking his Sword Factor votes. Now keep in mind I'm not calling for a Ganon blowout from wire to wire; its entirely possible that Frog comes out like a house of fire in the opening three hours and puts a real scare into Nintendo for a short while. But no worries, as he'll pull an MMX and be out of contention before too long, except that he's going to fall even HARDER.
Sooo with Samus looking great (in the pic too!), Ganon and Frog looking decent, and Nighmare looking awful (in the pic too!), it shouldn't take much pot stirring to arrive at
- Samus Aran - 35.81%
- Ganondorf - 26.50%
- Frog - 20.82%
- Nightmare - 16.87%
That looks... wonderful!
Ngamer Says: Samus > Ganon
Next Day Review[]
What's this? A match that we all agree is "pretty much a foregone conclusion"... actually turns out that way? Well now, I guess there's a first time for everything! Eh, actually we did learn at least two things from this match: whenever she can avoid looking like an orange toilet, Samus is rock-solid in this format, and two, Chrono Trigger continues to give indications that it has stemmed the tide of its yearly blood loss. That being the case, Vincent needs to really show us something tonight if he's going to prove (firstly) that he'll be able to bounce Samus if full-on Nintendo LFF comes into play and (secondly) that he's still the guy to beat in his upcoming Crono rematch. Now we just need someone to knock off the Block, so that rematch will actually mean something...