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Round Four


Saturday, November 15th, 2008

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 3302
Round Quarter Final
Match # 59
Match Date Saturday, November 15th, 2008
Cloud Strife - 36.26%
Solid Snake - 29.07%
Weighted Companion Cube - 19.89%
Mewtwo - 15.14%
Cloud first place (16pts) - 39.61%
Cloud second place (8pts) - 31.20%
Snake second place (16pts) - 28.02%
Snake first place (8pts) - 24.77%
Cloud - 70.81% (30,380)
Snake - 52.79% (22,648)

We all needed a rest break after the epic nonsense we had just been through, which is exactly what this match was. The only excitement to be had here was Snake keeping it close with Cloud for five minutes, which was a portent of things to come but we can save that for the appropriate time. After that five minutes was up, Cloud looked thoroughly dominant here. Not as dominant as Link, but he looked amazing nonetheless. It ultimately made the final all that much more of a shock.

Past that, not much to talk about. Mewtwo did well to make it this far, and he more than made up for his atrocious 2007 showing, but he never really looked that good here in 2008. Cube.... just kind of went out with a whimper. L-Block showed us that the inanimate joke factor was dead and buried, and that these characters were not going to have the same steam here in 2008, and this match showed it. Cube was never in this thing, had no joke trends, and acted more or less like a normal third place character. It was cool to see him not finish in last place on his way out, but L-Block he was not.

It was a boring match here today, which is exactly what we all needed. Crono's Redemption Story really took it out of everyone.

Stats and Analysis[]

Of the four quarterfinal matches this contest, this was easily the most predictable of the bunch. Though given how exciting the other QF matches were, it was perhaps nice to have a breather after Vincent and Crono's epic third act.

Most people knew that Cloud and Snake were going to the advance here. Weighted Companion Cube and Mewtwo had deep runs this contest, but both of them more or less got lucky with bracket placement and advanced thanks to stronger characters sharing the same fanbase. Heck, we were 1000 votes away from seeing Midna escape from her division instead of Mewtwo.

As for Cloud, he would drop the board vote as usual before taking the lead for good at around the four minute mark. The FF7 lead would end up scoring 56.86% on Snake. A decent victory (and arguably the last good win Cloud has ever had in these contests), but with Sephiroth crashing the party next round, Cloud's performance was bound to weaken due to overlap. The upcoming Semi Final was a great opportunity for Snake to snatch the upset over GameFAQs #2 character.

And with Cloud and Snake joining Link, Mario, Samus and Crono in the Semis, surely we would be getting our first Noble Nine elite eight in four years. No way would a white-haired devil hunter or a dumb pink ball take down Sephiroth or Sonic, right?


Match Trends[]


Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]

Match Prediction[]

Now moving on to what should be the last kind of dull matchup of the season. Or at least it darn well BETTER be dull... *shakes fist at WCC*

X-Stats from Round Three

  • Snake - 53.66% (based on '07 Mega Man)
  • WCC - 39.22% (based on '07 Mega Man)
  • Cloud - 54.91% (based on '07 Sora)
  • Mewtwo - 35.23% (based on '07 Sora)

What terrible terrible numbers! Mega Man's fate was sealed the moment Zero went and ruined everything by making that ASV comeback on Vivi, and it also left these x-stats fated to be awful. Not even the beastliest of MGS4/Brawl boosts could have pushed Snake above BL... and yet look at that, he STILL can't reach Cloud! That second set of numbers was of course destroyed by the triple Square SFF, which is likewise more or less impossible to adjust for. Oh well, moving on!

I took MGS4 boosted Steroid Snake to upset Cloud in the Final, but even *I* know that Solid isn't getting within CQCing range of Blonde Haired Zack without some major assistance from either Sephiroth or Vincent. As is, the only thing to keep an eye on is if Cloud can fire another shot across the bow by matching Link's percentage from earlier this round. 40% here would be hugely impressive, but I wouldn't put it past him.

Mewtwo had a nice run this season, but let's face it, that was mainly due to some very lucky placement and sliding by thanks to Fox making sure Yoshi wouldn't cut his legs out. After witnessing the ASV that Pika just pulled off against such respectable competition, I think we can put to bed the debate over who the strongest Pokemon is, at least in this format. I'd still like to see the two go head to head in a pure 1v1, but as is I don't see any way for Mew to come close to matching Pikachu's current percentage, and since he'd need to do so to have any shot of catching the Cube, a last place finish is just about a lock.

Speaking of WCC, let's check out his round by round progress. From 32% to 29% to not even 24%, ouch. And that was with hundreds of rallied votes and an ideal massive LFF setup, where it still barely managed to survive. There will be no such luck this time around; it's against three entirely independent characters who draw from three very powerful fanbases, and since it'll never be in the running against Snake no one's going to waste their time trying to rally for it. This is about as bad a situation as any joke could face, and as a result I'll be surprised if it can even manage to stay above 20%.

As for Snake, well, what's there to say? It would be really neat if he could hang around somewhat with Cloud, giving us some hope of the upset once Seph/VV come into play, but that doesn't seem very reasonable. Also would seem entirely insane (and infuriating!) if Cube ever challenged him. Staying within 10% or so of Cloud while 10% or so above WCC should be about right.

Cloud >> Snake >> Cube > Mewtwo... sure would be cool to see the Pokemon give him a run though! Sooo, that would work out to about... *pots and stirs up a heap 'o trouble*

  • Cloud Strife - 38.12%
  • Solid Snake - 27.66%
  • Weighted Companion Cube - 18.36%
  • Mewtwo - 15.86%

That looks... not very good, somehow. Oh well, if I go down I want to go down hating on joke characters.

Ngamer Says: Cloud > Snake

Next Day Review[]

Hmm, well guess I'll try to get this writeup in before UFC 91 kicks off. Gooo Lesnar! Things went about as expected today, except that Snake did a touch better than I expected and Mewtwo surprised me by collapsing. I realized he wasn't going to have triple LFF working overtime for him like last round, but STILL, he was the only Nintendo option and a Pokemon to boot- I assumed that meant that, like Pikachu, you wouldn't fold to anyone outside of Zelda/SSB. Time to boot Mew to the curb and bring in Charizard as a replacement IMO! As for Snake, darn fine showing here, and I think it sets us up for something extremely interesting once Sephiroth comes to town next round. As long as Sonic doesn't cramp Snake's Nintendo appeal too much, we could really be in for something special there!

External Links[]

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)