Sorry guys, L-Block has no chance against Snake/Sonic. was a topic made in 2007 by red13n on Board 8 shortly before L-Block's Round Four matchup against Snake, Sonic, and Squall. red had a long history of making "no chance" topics the day before important/controversial matches in past Contests, and prior to his L-Block prediction he had never been wrong.
...whoops!
The initial post and important follow ups are archived here for all time. Also it's important to note that much of the early discussion in the topic is taking place in the midst of Sonic's poor Round Three showing in which he nearly let Squall equal him, even though Squall was dealing with Square SFF from Sora. As Sonic's percentage kept dropping red's prediction continued to look more and more foolish by the minute.
Sorry guys, L-Block has no chance against Snake/Sonic.[]
red13n Posted 10/27/2007 9:57:01 PM message detail[]
Because this topic was overdue, and this contest has sent my confidence to hell (I had no confidence for anything except Yoshi's first match victory). I had to make the topic, and certain people have gotten it in their head that L-block cannot be stopped. They are, well, completely wrong. L-Blocks run, despite my vote and many of our votes, is doomed to failure in the next wrong. It is over.
Oh yes, and I know this topic isnt much of a stretch for anything, but this contest really took all the confidence from me well before it began. I'll make it up to you guys next contest(I should have made this topic for Yoshi in that first match, but that was way too soon).
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.
Paratroopa1 Posted 10/27/2007 10:00:38 PMmessage detail[]
One thing I think a lot of people forget to notice is that L-Block has yet to win a single match. >_> So yeah, it's got no chance.
red13n Posted 10/27/2007 10:04:27 PM message detail[]
Well for one, Squall is a level above Sora contest-wise, and we've seen that this format benefits upper-tier characters greatly. Not to mention Sonic is going to end up trouncing Squall during the day. But to see Squall putting up numbers like this is no surprise at all. I've said it a few times over AIM already, but this match is going about how I'd have expected it to so far.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.
sp unit 262 Posted 10/27/2007 10:06:36 PM message detail[]
- Sonic
- L-Block
- Snake
- Squall
That will be the results of the battle, GUARANTEED.
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Vote L-Block \n VOTE FAD
red13n Posted 10/27/2007 10:08:32 PM message detail[]
I guarantee they are wrong. Your guarantee is made of fail.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.
hochiminh155 Posted 10/27/2007 10:09:32 PM message detail[]
You don't have a right to be arrogant this contest. I haven't seen you on the leaderboard at all. I think it's safe to say you dropped the ball on this contest.
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perfect chaos007 Posted 10/27/2007 10:55:58 PM message detail[]
Snake > L-Block next round.
Sonics mediocre performance this round proves it. Sonic is barely beating Squall. L-Block could own Squall, and L-Block will most certainly beat Sonic.
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red13n Posted 10/27/2007 10:58:35 PM message detail[]
You guys dont get how strong Squall is do you...oh well.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.
Ngamer64 Posted 10/28/2007 12:36:57 AM message detail[]
Squall being this strong does nothing but further decrease Sonic's chances of advancing. The lower Snake and Squall (who let's not forget will look much better without Sora in the picture) can keep Sonic's percentage, the more chance there is that the 26-7ish% who will support this "joke character" regardless of opponent will be enough to push him into second.
While I agree that Sonic is still the favorite in the match, to say that L (who I'm going to refer to in the masculine for the remainder of this post for ease of use) has no chance of finishing second is completely nonsensical. Please consider the following points:
* L-Block is highly pic sensitive. L isn't supported unless voters "get the joke." When he looked like a sponge in R1, the Block ended up posting a relatively pathetic performance, allowing Kirby to beat him by over 17k votes. But after the picture improved in R2, he amazed us by stomping Kirby by nearly 5k, and here in R3, where for the first time he was unmistakably "oh yeah, that thing from Tetris!" he amazed us even further by hanging tight with Snake.
Since R4 will feature all user-created pics, L is a virtual lock to receive a very favorable picture, which should at the very least maintain the near-Snake strength yesterday's picture already allowed him to display in this format.
* L-Block is supported by old-school/nostalgia voters. As that unrecognizable sponge in R1, L's only accomplishment was to top two other characters that are quite frankly jokes themselves, in this or any other format. But once it became clear to all voters that "ohhh, I get it; this is that piece I spent hours flipping and dropping back on my NES/GameBoy!" in R2, lo and behold he suddenly laid the wood to Kirby and Donkey Kong, two characters loved for their pre-32 bit success who haven't done all that much for us lately. Meanwhile, PS2 icon Kratos escaped unscathed in that poll. Now sure, Kratos collapsed in R3, but it seems clear that was more a result of heavy PS2/badass SFF from Snake rather than anything L did to him specifically.
Where does that leave us for R4? Let's see, we'll have two PS2 characters possibly weakening each other, while the third option is... an old-school character loved for his pre-32 bit success who hasn't done much for us lately. Granted there will be no Donkey Kong to pull votes from Sonic, but the way L has continued to increase in strength combined with Sonic's failure to distance himself from Squall today may mean that the Block won't be needing any additional help at all. Which ties into the next point...
* L-Block is gaining momentum. Over 80% of voters visit GameFAQs on a daily basis [ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1387 ]. Given that this will be L-Block's fourth appearance, it's safe to assume that around 90% of visitors will have seen him in at least one poll by now, and by this time will be able to recognize him as the Tetris piece, even if they didn't realize that back in R1 (which seems likely, given his relatively awful performance). They're also going to be aware that people must be voting this "character" in droves for him to have advanced this deep into the tournament, and it's highly likely they're going to find that fact funny, and want to continue the fun by advancing him even further with their own vote.
You could also make a case for the opposite happening- voters are sure to backlash against a non-character when they see it advancing TOO far into a Contest. But given that we just saw L go from 28.33 on Kratos/Kirby/DK to 28.63% on Snake/Kratos/Riku, the later of which he lead outright for over four hours, I'd have to say that your case would be somewhat less than air-tight.
* The potential for Snake/Sonic SFF now exists. R2 saw Sonic seemingly explode in popularity in the wake of his Brawl announcement video, in much the same way that Snake exploded to never-before seen heights in 2006 in the wake of his shocking E3 entrance video. As you no doubt recall, he was a force to be reckoned with all last Contest, easily dispatching of Squall, MM, and Sonic and coming in a heavy favorite for his Championship battle with Samus. And yet, the first time he met a fellow SSB participant on his own popularity level he collapsed back to pre-Brawl levels, allowing Samus to pretty much make a fool of him en route to an easy victory.
Now I'm not saying that just because they now have Brawl hype and entrance videos in common Snake is going to use that shared fanbase to embarrass Sonic as badly as Samus exposed him last year. What I am saying is that he won't need to. Even if only 3 to 4% of voters are supporting Snake and Sonic more for "oh, he looked so cool in that Brawl trailer, can't wait play as him!" rather than because they're dedicated fans of the series, all L-Block might need to advance would be the slightest split in that casual fanbase in favor of Sonic. If even two of the earlier three points are relevant, the margin between Sonic and L for next round could very well already be that razor-thin.
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Please consider these four points carefully before re-evaluating your "no chance" stance on this R4 matchup, red.
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creativename Posted 10/28/2007 9:54:22 AM message detail[]
L-Block has a very good chance as Ngamer said; it remains a big wildcard. There's more reason to be worried about Sonic than about Snake (Snake won't be hindered by that picture, and as the strongest character, he shouldn't collapse like Kratos did). There's a real possibility of Sonic actually finishing 4th (if Squall is hurt by Sora here at all, or if Snake somehow SFFs/LFFs Sonic's Brawl strength...or even just wacky format induced variance).
I believe that L-Block might be the most pic-sensitive character we have ever seen, because after all, "it's a freakin' BLOCK!" L-Block has no actual fanbase whatsoever. It's really almost wholly on "OMG, is that a damn Tetris block?? Cool!" votes. And next round, with user-made pictures, it should have it's best pic to date.
L-Block has increased in strength every round, and this is either due to pic factor, or (as some others believe) loyalty factor (L-Block's %age will not decline much every round). We pretty much know that one of these thigns is true (though round 2 was largely caused by LFF between Kirby/DK, his round 3 switching with Kratos was due to increased strength - though the switching places with Kratos itself was expected, the degree he won by wasn't).
There's also the possible "momentum" factor, as Ngamer mentioned. L-Block is the only entrant (along with possibly Starcraft) that might potentially be gaining from this (though it's arguable in both cases).
Now sure, Kratos collapsed in R3, but it seems clear that was more a result of heavy PS2/badass SFF from Snake rather than anything L did to him specifically.
I don't think it was SFF, I think Snake is just that much stronger than him (without the Solid **** he'd be even stronger). I don't think there any any substantial overlap there, except that which is always present.
Anyway, GO...Squall :) I'll actually be pulling for Squall next round out of Square fanboyism (though I'm not actually a fan of Squall himself). I'll probably be voting for L-Block though, and L-Block has a good shot to advance next round. It's really up in the air what will happen. Frankly, it's kind of hard to even call Sonic the favorite over L-Block (though I'd say he is).
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Ngamer64 Posted 10/28/2007 4:31:58 PM message detail[]
Well for one, Squall is a level above Sora contest-wise, and we've seen that this format benefits upper-tier characters greatly. Not to mention Sonic is going to end up trouncing Squall during the day.
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/images/poll_graph.php?matchnum=2918&type=2&seconds=900
Well, Sonic's legendary morning vote served him pretty well, but even that wasn't able to create much distance. And now as Sora's "after-school" (well, the equivalent) block is starting to finally burn out, it's looking like Squall will soon start returning to impressive updates like he pulled the whole overnight.
Now imagine what happens when that Sora block isn't there to hold him back the entire day. Yikes, Sonic's favorite status is really starting to falter.
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Shaggy_Heru Posted 10/31/2007 9:13:48 AM message detail[]
L-Block got ~40k votes the first round, ~37k the second, and ~40k the third.
It strikes me that he will get a similar vote total in this next round. The strength of his opponents doesn't seem to have much effect on him.
I'm guessing Snake will be the clear first, and Sonic and L-Block will battle for second, while Squall takes last.
Either Sonic or L-Block for second is fine by me, I have Sonic, but I doubt to many people have L-Block, so he isn't really a threat.
whoever takes second tomorrow will also take second in the next round I think. Or even first, if there is enough SSF between Snake, MC, and Dante.
~Shaggy~
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shaggy123 Posted 10/31/2007 9:17:50 AM message detail[]
My god... all he need to do is scrape through this round and he could actually get to the finals.
Come on L-Block don't fail me now!
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Superluigi98 Posted 10/31/2007 9:24:14 AM message detail[]
I think the Brawl SFF for Snake/Sonic is pretty shaky at base, and I don't think it will be too much of a factor in this match. For the most part, I think they will stay at their base strengths.
That being said, I thought it was already established that Squall was pretty close to Sonic in terms of strength, but not quite. I think Sonic still has an edge over him, if slightly. However, throwing L-Block into the mix throws everything off, since no one can really gauge his strength (although it looks as if he's increasing) and he is really pic sensitive. I really can't tell who will come out on top in this one.
However, saying that L-Block doesn't have a chance is a bit exaggerated me thinks >_>
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red13n Posted 10/31/2007 6:37:56 PM message detail[]
L-block's chances of winning are 0. Thus he has no chance.
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.
Ngamer64 Posted 10/31/2007 8:06:54 PM message detail[]
Less than an hour remains before red begins his first helping of humble pie.
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Ngamer64 Posted 10/31/2007 9:12:27 PM message detail[]
I'd like to point out that L has 39.61% of the vote 10 minutes into the match. R3 he was managing only 39.08% at this point... against weaker competition... AND Solid *&$%.
red is shaking in his boots right now.
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Haste_2 Posted 10/31/2007 9:17:12 PM message detail[]
I'm starting to get skeptical that L-Block will fall to Sonic, but I'm sure Snake will still beat the block.
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Ngamer64 Posted 10/31/2007 9:36:28 PM message detail[]
Where do we stand 30 minutes into the match? Well, Sonic currently trails L-Block by 1514 votes. Sonic has a very poor night vote, and L has shown no signs of slowing down to this point, even though at this same time in R3 he'd already started to stumble.
My my my.
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YoAriel33 Posted 10/31/2007 10:36:53 PM message detail[]
Ouch. Up until today, didn't red have a perfect track record with these topics? Can't feel very good to have that derailed by a Tetris block.
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Haste_2 Posted 10/31/2007 10:37:36 PM message detail[]
I think this might be the first time red has ever failed a bold prediction.... ever. And not just with GameFAQs contests.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
perfect chaos007 Posted 10/31/2007 10:38:31 PM message detail[]
Yeah. I'm suprised that a guy as smart ( usually ) as red could get such an easy one wrong. I mean, Sonic has done like **** this whole contest. Snake is of course going beat L-Block but like I said earlier Sonic will get third. This was an easy match to call.
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red13n Posted 10/31/2007 10:59:30 PM message detail[]
I concede, L-Block to the finals. And possibly sneaking into second overall...
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"First thing that crosses my mind: I didn't get any GameFAQs Karma yesterday." Math Murderer after getting his appendix removed.
Aftermath[]
The topic was kept alive by B8ers wanting to have a good laugh all the way until February of 2008. At one point insult was added to injury when fellow mod Sine stickied red's embarrassing topic for about 5 minutes after L had jumped out to a huge lead on Link in the Contest Final.