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Bge09-34

Results[]

Round Two

Poll3479

Sunday, May 10th, 2009

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 3479
Round Division 1972-1988 Semi Final
Match # 34
Match Date Sunday, May 10th, 2009
Oracle
Expectations
The Legend of Zelda - 39.49%
Super Mario Bros. - 38.86%
Metroid - 12.02%
Ninja Gaiden - 9.52%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Mario 1 first place (4pts) - 59.46%
Mario 1 second place (2pts) - 23.60%
Zelda 1 second place (4pts) - 53.98%
Zelda 1 first place (2pts) - 28.65%
Advancing
Prediction
Super Mario Bros. - 83.06% (31,809)
The Legend of Zelda - 82.63% (31,644)

I can understand one or two games sneaking into the second round only to get SFFd to hell, but two in the exact same match? This was just... bad. Expected given what Mario did to Duck Hunt, but still bad. Have some pride. Not that Metroid will ever figure it out against Nintendo -- and Ninja Gaiden won't ever figure it out period, it got very lucky in the first round -- but still. Pride.

The match to see here was Mario 1 vs Zelda 1, but as you can see by this final result, it wasn't much of a match. This was all pre-debate match hype, but for once it was legitimate. Zelda 1 scored 43% on Mario 3 in 2004. It's not too unreasonable to ask Zelda to make up a 7% gap on Mario 3's weaker older brother, especially given the lack of any real evidence.

We had two polls and guesswork to go on. Anyone who said they were 100% confident one way or the other was just doing the standard annoying pre-contest know-it-all Board 8 thing, because a good case could be made either way. Zelda is generally the SFF king, but Mario 1 is much more respected among gamers than the original Zelda.

As for the two polls:

Favorite Zelda and Favorite Mario. Zelda 1 got 7.63%, Mario 1 got 6.56%. Both bad performances, but Mario's bad score came in the face of a fellow NES title, Mario 3. Zelda 1 had no other NES games to compete with. This was my reason for picking Mario 1 > Zelda 1 here, and it was as good a reason as any other given how close this was pre-match.

The match itself was over within seconds and Mario 1 dominated (relatively) based upon expectations for a close match. However, this match helped set up one of the weirdest runs we've ever seen in a contest. Zelda 1 might have lost pretty easily here, but it would have its day later on.

Match Trends[]

Graph3479

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]

Match Prediction[]

Time to watch Nintendo's Big Two go head to head for the first time this season! In my bracket I picked Zelda > Mario here, and did so without giving it too much thought. Sure Mario 3 managed nearly 57% on the game directly, but M3 is universally recognized as the crown jewel of the NES- anything from that era was going to fall down on its knees before it (well, unless it was riding high on the "Final Fantasy" brand name). Mario 1 was a different story... sure it has the respect, and sure it has the same enormous playrate, but no one actually loves the game like they do 3. That monumental beatdown back in R1 really opened my eyes though; maybe this game really IS closer to 3 than I'd ever have expected, at least indirectly? In fact I was so impressed that I would have no choice but to take Mario 1 over Zelda 1 in a direct matchup right now.

...but as we all know, this isn't a direct matchup. Mario's huge playrate gives it an opportunity to score big time blowouts in this format when up against games no one cares about, but we have to remember that blowout power doesn't necessarily mean extreme 4way strength. Once the super-fodder is removed and every option in the poll has a decent fanbase behind it, I think that the format begins to play more and more into Zelda's hands; yes its very possible that the early Mario games have MORE fans than the early Zeldas, but I'm of the opinion that the Zelda base is more dedicated, which could make all the difference. I also think that the competition helps Zelda out ever so slightly- an adventure with RPG elements does a better job of standing out against all these platformer/shooter/action titles. So all in all I've decided to stick with my bracket and give Zelda just the slightest edge in this one.

My only other point is that Ninja Gaiden probably holds up a tiny bit better than the numbers I'm seeing here, just because it once again gets to serve as something of an anti-Nintendo choice (though it hurts that this time around there's no mistaking it for the Xbox version). Speaking of the match pic, yikes, that's the perfect super-iconic look for Mario! Very tempted to flip flop over to it... but no, have to stay strong. Final decision quickly before I change my mind:

  • The Legend of Zelda - 40.28%
  • Super Mario Bros. - 40.16%
  • Metroid - 11.34%
  • Ninja Gaiden - 8.22%

Yeah, just don't know about that!

Next Day Review[]

Well sir, weird to think that Mario 1 is so close to Mario 3 indirectly (I'm sure it still gets crushed head to head), but after today's result there doesn't seem to be any way around it. NG is still a supreme chump, true, but nothing involving Zelda or Metroid is a pushover on this site and yet Mario pounded their heads in and never broke a sweat. If M1 holds down Z1 that far again next round, and then MM2 arrives to bring down the NES options just a tiny bit more, perhaps my surprise upset where Tetris is the independent entry could... alright alright, so I give up on that one!

External Links[]

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2009 Spring Contest Matches

Round One
Tetris > Donkey Kong
MM2 > Pac-Man
SMB > Ninja Gaiden
Zelda 1 > Metroid
Sonic 1 > SFII
SMB3 > Monkey Island
SMW > FF
FFIV > MM3
S.Metroid > SMK
Zelda:LttP > DKC
FFVI > Zelda:LA
Sonic 2 > MKII
GE007 > SMRPG
FFVII > MK64
SM64 > SotN

CT > Yoshi's Island
Pokémon RBY > Zelda:MM
MGS > Pokémon GS
FFVIII > Starcraft
Zelda: OoT > FFIX
FFX > MGS2
KH > GTA:VC
Diablo II > Halo
SSBM > Zelda:WW
Oblivion > ToS
MGS3 > WoW
RE4 > KHII
Zelda: TP > Half-Life 2
SSBB > GTAIV
CoD4 > SMG
MGS4 > Portal
Fallout 3 > Halo 3

Round Two
Tetris > MM2
SMB > Zelda 1
SMB3 > Sonic 1
SMW > FF IV
Zelda:LttP > S.Metroid
FFVI > Zelda:LA
FFVII > GE007
SM64 > CT
MGS > Pokémon RBY
Zelda:OoT > FFVIII
FFX > KH
SSBM > Diablo II
MGS3 > Oblivion
Zelda:TP > RE4
SSBB > CoD4
MGS4 > Fallout 3

R3 and following
SMB > Zelda 1
SMB3 > SMW
Zelda:LttP > FFVI
FFVII > SM64
Zelda:OoT > Pokémon RBY
SSBM > FFX
Zelda:TP > RE4
SSBB > MGS4
SMW > SMB3
FFVII > Zelda:LttP
Zelda:OoT > FFX
MGS4 > SSBB
FFVII > Zelda:LttP
Zelda:OoT > FFX
Zelda:OoT > FFVII (Finals)
Zelda:OoT > FFVII (Bonus)

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