Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 1989-1991 Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 36 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, May 12th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Mario World - 37.01% Final Fantasy IV - 25.59% Mega Man 3 - 19.59% Final Fantasy - 17.99% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
SMW first place (4pts) - 50.43% SMW second place (2pts) - 16.89% FF4 second place (4pts) - 36.18% FF4 first place (2pts) - 11.73% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Super Mario World - 67.32% (25,781) Final Fantasy IV - 47.91% (18,348) |
I'd like to take this opportunity to apologize for all those FF1 > FF4 debates I started leading up to this match. I really did think there was a possibility of this upset given the first round, but I was clearly wrong. The original Final Fantasy got crushed decisively here, regardless of whatever SFF and LFF from Mega Man 3 was going on. My apologies on that front, but you're insane if you ever thought one of the Final Fantasies was going to sneak through both Mario games -- especially after this match. Mario World might have sucked it up in round 1, but it was clearly in A-Game Mode from here on out, and Mario 3 was equally dominant. For Final Fantasy 4 to get through to Round 4, you would have to give ALL of Final Fantasy and Mega Man 3's votes to it and hope for a big split. And even then, good luck.
In reality, I think this match proved there's plenty of overlap between Mario World and FF4, signaling FF4's death in the following round. And how couldn't you? Mario World let Final Fantasy get 45% on it, then it goes out and nearly gets 70% on FF4. That's not a coincidence, especially when it's fair given this match to assume FF4 is a stronger game than FF1.
Oh, and a note about Mega Man 3. Did it not royally suck here or what? Mega Man 2 performed passably on Tetris this round and Mega Man X did pretty well given its first round exit, but I think we can safely assume the series as a whole bombed in this contest. Then you look at Mario Kart doing well before realizing the Mega Man > Mario Kart result in the series contest. Madness, I tell you. You'd think the series contest results would translate into this contest a bit more accurately than they did.
tl;dr version: Mario World is a beast, the Mega Man series bombed, I'm an idiot for arguing FF1 > FF4, you're an idiot for arguing FF4 > Mario 3 or Mario World regardless of split, and at the end of the day only KrahenProphet can claim to not be an idiot. It's why these contests rock; we can debate stuff for weeks, but only one person is going to look smart after the final match :D
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
tonight is the most important match of the Contest, in my opinion. Maybe that's putting it a touch strongly... but it's the early round matchup that is going to do the most to effect how the bracket plays out down the line. So maybe it would make more sense to call it the cornerstone of the bracket, or the lynchpin? In any case, I decided early on that tomorrow's winner would determine which game ends up representing the 8-bit division in the Contest Final, and I stand by that. If an FF makes it out, the Square games gets a free ride for a bunch of rounds until LttP knocks it out to make the Final, but if MM3 could slide past that would allow Zelda 1 to get further until a double Zelda poll would put Mario 3 in the Championship instead.
...unfortunately, I took what I now realize was the wrong upset. I've never understood all the hype for FF4, and since 1 vs 4 was going to be a tossup in my mind I decided to bypass that choice altogether by saying the MM3 could powerslide past due to LFF. And I'd still argue that it was a good decision IN THEORY; the problem is that in reality MM has just not been up to snuff this season, and that furthermore it seems like any 8/16 bit platformer most likely gets murdered by Mario 1, 3, or World. So I've got to break from my bracket and accept that MM3 finishes in last place here (though I still think it can keep this closer than most expect).
However my doubts regarding FF4 have far from subsided! I'm sure it's a great game and all, but I just don't get the impression that most of the Square fanbase on this site has played anything earlier than FF6 (and this year it's looking like even 6 might have taken a tumble), and so when given the option of two games they don't know much about, I'm thinking they mostly take the original. Especially when 1 nabs such an iconic picture with appealing sprites (seriously, even gamers who haven't touched the early FF series are familiar with Black Mage and Fighter) while the other option gets stuck with the "FF2" label that fewer people know and a big blob of blur as a screenshot.
Yep, jumping off one upset train just to get on the other, final decision!
- Super Mario World - 38.79%
- Final Fantasy - 21.62%
- Final Fantasy IV - 21.57%
- Mega Man 3 - 18.02%
This should be an exciting poll check...
Next Day Review[]
Haha, this is just too funny. Two days ago we (by that I mean the Oracle average) had way too much faith in Zelda and underestimated Mario 1 by 7.33%. Then yesterday we didn't have quite enough respect for Sonic and SF, so we went OVER by 1.76% on Mario 3. Which got us all thinking that lowballing Mario was a good idea... but instead SMW's going to smoke us by about 14%! That's why I love these Contests: 7 years and 11 Contests and 62 matches later and we still have no idea how to even peg Mario, of all things! But, uh yeah, really shocked at FF4 and embarrassed at my lack of respect for Square fans- I was sure FF1 would pull all of the "important" and "original" votes and manage a win despite being the worse game, just like Mario 1 > Zelda 1. And boy is my face red for thinking a Mega Man game might be worth ANYTHING AT ALL!