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Round Five


Saturday, June 6th, 2009

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 3506
Round Semi Final
Match # 61
Match Date Saturday, June 6th, 2009
Final Fantasy VII - 39.37%
Zelda: A Link to the Past - 23.13%
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 18.88%
Super Mario World - 18.74%
FF7 first place (32pts) - 43.04%
FF7 second place (16pts) - 20.34%
Zelda:LttP second place (32pts) - 10.72%
Zelda:LttP first place (16pts) - 4.67%
Final Fantasy VII - 63.38% (24,272)
Link to the Past - 15.39% (5,894)

This match may have been interesting if Mario 64 completed its comeback against LTTP, but as is this is one of the easiest to call late round matches we've ever had. FF7 was a lock for first place, and Zelda was obviously going to prevail among the three Nintendo leftovers given the Mario split. This match was a near-lock for FF7 > LTTP, and was all about the incoming FF7 vs Ocarina final.

And again for the fifth time in a row, FF7 won the comparison game. Its problem was forgetting it was the stronger game once the actual final came around. Nearly 45% is much more impressive than Ocarina's 41% on weaker competition, though the Nintendo SFF obviously helps FF7's percentage along.

With half the final set, it was time for our last exciting match of the contest.

Match Trends[]


Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]

Match Prediction[]

Moving on to FF7 versus The S/NES Gang. Let's start with the obvious: FF7 will look like a destroyer of worlds, going to town on these guys with over 40 and almost certainly increasing its % from last round now that FF6 is out of the way. (If 7 allows OoT to outscore it once again this round despite the perfect setup, I'll have to shake my head in disgust!) Also obvious (I think?): Mario 3 reverses the most recent result by taking down SMW thanks to LttP being around to soak up some of that SNES love. Basically this situation is the polar opposite of last time; now World's recency doesn't do it a bit of good since both LttP and FF7 are newer, while M3's iconic/nostalgic/historic aura will be working overtime.

In other words, the only thing to talk about is the battle for 2nd place, and... man, I really wish I could go with Mario 3. From one perspective the upset makes sense: LttP > Zelda 1, yes, but is it really ahead by THAT much? And this time around the Mario options won't be throwing 12% of the vote away on M1... plus wouldn't it make sense for Mario to hold up better in the presence of FF than Zelda does? I kind of think so. But then Mario 64 has to go and burst my bubble. Even if Mario 3 >> M64 (probably not true- got to imagine they're nearly neck and neck these days after what 64 did to CT), 64 had FF7 plus SNES-era FF6 around to hold back LttP last time yet it couldn't get the job done. Now that 6 has been replaced with another Mario option, its got to be lights out.

Then again, its not like Mario hasn't shocked us 100 times already this year despite unfavorable circumstances. And whatever happened to all that "with 95% playrates, same series LFF doesn't matter!" talk from rounds past? But, nah, still can't pull the trigger. For the record though, after all we've seen this season I WOULD be taking Mario 3 > LttP here with any non-Nintendo platformer in the fourth position! Also I think that in any case, the Marios stick closer to Zelda than most are giving them credit for. And that should result in a final percentage right around

  • Final Fantasy VII - 42.01%
  • The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past - 21.75%
  • Super Mario World - 18.40%
  • Super Mario Bros. 3 - 17.84%

Wait, what the JUNK? In my rushing around last night I apparently forgot to swap Mario 3 into 3rd place in my Oracle pick. So I'll, uh, stick with this. Crap!

Next Day Review[]

Good heavens, was that ever embarrassing! I was dead wrong about FF7 (45% of the vote at this stage of the bracket? It had the ideal situation, I know, but even *I* have to admit that FF7 has asserted itself as the game to beat with a showing like that.), dead wrong about the Marios hanging tight with LttP, and even dead wrong about Mario 3 gaining an advantage over SMW with there being no other NES options around. (Luckily my foolishness in not double checking my pred saved my Oracle from that last mistake!) It's the second thing I mentioned that really bothers me... Mario had by far his best season since the Summer of '05, with his three top tier titles stunning us left and right through the whole bracket, and yet the final impression they leave is coming up miles behind LttP and missing out on a Championship that quite frankly they deserved to be represented in. What a shame that World couldn't have been placed in the bottom bracket where it could have challenged R/B/Y and FFX and the SSB/MGSes, and that 3 didn't get a legit shot at LttP or, um... oh wait, that was the only other game of strength in the upper half. MIX THE ERAS next time, SB!

External Links[]

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2009 Spring Contest Matches

Round One
Tetris > Donkey Kong
MM2 > Pac-Man
SMB > Ninja Gaiden
Zelda 1 > Metroid
Sonic 1 > SFII
SMB3 > Monkey Island
S.Metroid > SMK
Zelda:LttP > DKC
FFVI > Zelda:LA
Sonic 2 > MKII
SM64 > SotN

CT > Yoshi's Island
Pokémon RBY > Zelda:MM
MGS > Pokémon GS
FFVIII > Starcraft
Zelda: OoT > FFIX
Diablo II > Halo
SSBM > Zelda:WW
Oblivion > ToS
MGS3 > WoW
Zelda: TP > Half-Life 2
CoD4 > SMG
MGS4 > Portal
Fallout 3 > Halo 3

Round Two
Tetris > MM2
SMB > Zelda 1
SMB3 > Sonic 1
Zelda:LttP > S.Metroid
FFVI > Zelda:LA
SM64 > CT
MGS > Pokémon RBY
Zelda:OoT > FFVIII
SSBM > Diablo II
MGS3 > Oblivion
Zelda:TP > RE4
MGS4 > Fallout 3

R3 and following
SMB > Zelda 1
Zelda:LttP > FFVI
Zelda:OoT > Pokémon RBY
Zelda:TP > RE4
FFVII > Zelda:LttP
Zelda:OoT > FFX
FFVII > Zelda:LttP
Zelda:OoT > FFX
Zelda:OoT > FFVII (Finals)
Zelda:OoT > FFVII (Bonus)