Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 2007-2009 Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 56 |
| Match Date | Monday, June 1st, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 33.45% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 28.21% Call of Duty 4 - 20.20% Fallout 3 - 18.38% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Brawl first place (8pts) - 23.55% Brawl second place (4pts) - 10.13% MGS4 second place (8pts) - 18.74% MGS4 first place (4pts) - 12.06% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 33.68% (12,898) Metal Gear Solid 4 - 30.80% (11,795) |
For the third straight round, the final match of the round was a staircase blowout that barely needs mentioning. What makes this round different from the previous two however was this poll:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3365
And this poll:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3364
And THIS poll:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3363
In GOTY, MGS4 gave Brawl fits for three days straight. In the contest that mattered, Brawl absolutely curbstomped MGS4 and ended the match within 5 seconds. If there was any doubt as to Brawl's legitimacy, it ended during this match. Turning a series of 50-50 polls into 12000 vote blowouts is no joke, which made the next round all the more funny. That's about all there is to note in this poll, since Fallout 3 and Call of Duty 4 were never going to be players in it.
Thanks to a round ending on another boring match, I once again get to enjoy a short writeup with Stars and Turds!
Star of the Round:
-Super Smash Bros. Brawl, for the second round in a row.
Turd of the Round:
-The entire FFX/KH/SSBM/D2 match. In a round full of pretty good matches, this was just horrible to watch.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
I made a major mistake yesterday in calling TP/RE/MGS the "last dull poll of the season." First of all because it ended up not being dull in the least, and secondly because I forgot about THIS match! Now I realize some people will try to make a case for MGS here, because 3 looked really good, 3 seemed to confirm that these games do better as you add more options, and 4 has a chance to be the strongest MGS of all. But I'm not buying it. We've already seen F03 come down off its recency-boosted GotY high- I think MGS4 was riding some of that same recency itself, and that if you held the 1v1 final again today Brawl would extend its win. The main reason I'm picking Brawl for an easy win though is expressed quite succinctly in this image:
(see it above)
Three mature, dark, grimy, grey-palleted PS3/360/PC action shooters (well they're different genres, but you shoot in all of them!) against... one brightly colored Nintendo fighter that gets an entire genre and platform and color scheme to itself? That's a recipe for MGS4 disaster if I've ever seen one!
No matter how far down MGS gets pushed though Fallout is sure to fall even farther, so nothing exciting there. If this poll has any intrigue it will be in FO3 and CoD4's battle for 3rd- give me Fallout there just based on RPGs consistently outperforming FPSes this season. In reality though all those two will be doing is holding each other back by gobbling each others 360 and PC bases while Brawl and MGS rise to heaven on their System Savior status.
If I'm right about all this (and let's face it, I always am!), this result should end up right around
- Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 33.26%
- Metal Gear Solid 4 - 27.81%
- Fallout 3 - 19.79%
- Call of Duty 4 - 19.13%
Seems awesome!
Next Day Review[]
What a pure "wow" performance by Brawl. I mean obviously the game was in a great position due to all the factors I got into last time, but two of our best predictors (tranny and Leon) also saw all those factors coming in yet still messed up the Brawl/MGS4 gap by nearly 10%- now that's the mark of an impressive performance! SSBB pulled a great ASV, but you really can't go too wild about that considering how MGS is traditionally at its worse during that timeframe. What really shocked me was how well it held up overnight; it never even allowed 4 to make a legit cut, unlike Melee which got gouged by FFX for hours at a time! Between Brawl smacking around MGS4 by 10 and TP crushing RE4 by 9, all of a sudden this next round has gotten a whole lot more interesting. Is RE4 going to top MGS4 to prove 3 > 4? Since they're clearly the strongest two games, could BOTH Wii flagship titles possibly survive? Is TP going to hang so tough that the two just murder each other and let those strong independent titles advance instead? Anything seems possible right now!