Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 62 |
| Match Date | Sunday, June 7th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 39.04% Final Fantasy X - 22.84% Metal Gear Solid 4 - 21.34% Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 17.07% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Zelda:OoT first place (32pts) - 40.56% Zelda:OoT second place (16pts) - 9.28% FF10 second place (32pts) - 3.12% FF10 first place (16pts) - 2.03% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Ocarina of Time - 49.84% (19,087) Final Fantasy X - 5.15% (1,972) |
Ocarina was obviously going to get first place here to secure the third spot in the final, so the true match was between the other three games to finally settle our debate for the fourth final spot once and for all.
It would have been nice for this to get decided by base strength, but Ocarina SFFing Brawl prevented this. Brawl could very well have made the final if this were just a three way poll between the three weaker games, but bracket placement and luck are a big part of the game in this format. Brawl fell behind early and was completely unable to catch up based on Ocarina's presence. It was a shame to see Brawl's run end this way, but it happens sometimes.
The true match ended up FFX against MGS4, and early on MGS4 was a clear recipient of bandwagoning. MGS4 took a slim early lead, and pushed back any FFX push with a spiked increase. This is usually a sign of rallying and bandwagoning, especially late in contests. MGS4 continued this pattern for a couple of hours, but was unable to hold it once the heavy night vote kicked in. The deep night is Final Fantasy's best time, and FFX used it to erase MGS4's miniscule 200 vote lead. From there it rose to heaven and won second place fairly easily, giving us our fourth entrant for the final. A few games might have beaten FFX given different bracket placement, but in the end we got the cookie cutter final predicted as soon as the bracket came out.
Ironically, the final looked like it would be no contest given how FF7 outperformed Ocarina five times in a row. But that's, as Chris Berman would say, why they play the games.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
That brings us to the second to last match of the season, and it seems everyone agrees that this will be a dullfest. I'm... not so sure. Yes Ocarina is going to dominate (though I don't see any way it could possibly contend with FF7's Nintendo-bloated percentage) and yes Brawl will be last by a light year (I do think it holds up better than Melee did, but thanks to Pokemon being in the mix last time who knows if that will mean anything). As for FFX/MGS4 though, hmmm.
I just don't think its wise to count MGS out entirely. Yes its the weakest of these 4 options naturally, but there are a few things working in it favor to help balance that out, IMO.
- many voters are sick of Nintendo/Square domination, and as we saw with Snake last season, that can work to MGS's favor; people might hesitate to vote another FF into the Final, especially after seeing FF7 put up nearly 50 yesterday
- the MGS base is more dedicated than anyone, including FF- we saw this when FF8 collapsed to allow MGS1 the heads up win. granted X >> 8 while 1 ~= 4, but Ocarina and Brawl combined ought to be sucking up a large enough percentage of the votes to help even that playing field
- as I've said before, I think there's a good deal of playership overlap between Zelda and FF, and I guess Square in general- Snake's powerhouse showing in the last Final seems to bear this out somewhat. being the most independent option could work wonders since, again, the Nintendo choices are going to be taking the lion's share here
The trouble with backing the MGS upset is that FFX is just so so good overnight and then holds its own fairly well all through the day, whereas MGS falls down the stairs during the ASV. The only way I could see 4 pulling this off would be to get a huge start in the opening three hours, thereby creating enough Snake-like rally momentum to keep it within range for the MGS "clutch factor" of the last two hours. But, eh, that's too much a long shot for me to pull the trigger on. Still think the race for second will be closer than most are calling for though!
- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 41.77%
- Final Fantasy X - 21.87%
- Metal Gear Solid 4 - 20.47%
- Super Smash Bros. Brawl - 15.88%
BAM, I like it!
Next Day Review[]
Oh sweet, that ended up being another pretty solid prediction for me! Brawl held up a tad better than I expected and limited Ocarina's mobility somewhat as a result, but I was right on the money when it came to the battle for second place. MGS had an excellent first three hours, then X went nutzo when Europe started to wake up just as it always does, BUT 4 countered by hanging pretty tough all through the overnight. Once the sun rose on the East Coast though, poof, that dream was gone- had to pretty much settle for going even with Brawl from there out. Actually, hmm, I wonder how good my pick was exactly...
4) Ngamer64 FF X 21.87% MGS4 20.47% SSBB 15.88% Zelda: OoT 41.77% 49.16 4.92
Awwww yeah, that's what I like to see! Anyways, let's check how Brawl vs Melee ended up. From my quick calcs, looks like Brawl managed... 30% directly, while Melee pulled down just 26.25%. But factor in Pokemon plus Melee naturally being expected to overlap more given how the games were only 3-4 years apart, and... CRAP, it's still too close to call between these two. Oh well, guess we'll have to just go on debating that one for the next 24 months!