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Cb7-41

Results Edit

Round Two

Poll3284

Tuesday, October 28th, 2008

Stats and Analysis Edit

Poll 3284
Round Division 5 Semi Final
Match # 41
Match Date Tuesday, October 28th, 2008
Oracle
Expectations
Mega Man - 35.98%
Weighted Companion Cube - 26.18%
Tidus - 22.55%
Nero - 15.38%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Mega Man first place (4pts) - 29.72%
Mega Man second place (2pts) - 42.37%
Cube second place (4pts) - 7.08%
Cube first place (2pts) - 21.29%
Advancing
Prediction
Mega Man - 72.09% (30,929)
Cube - 28.37% (12,172)

After what we had seen over the past matches this round, the result of this match seemed to be pretty much set in stone. Tidus had failed to overcome WCC last round, but the Cube was no L-Block and L had seemed pretty darned vulnerable a few matches ago.

And it ended up that way, more or less. Mega Man took an easy first, WCC beat Tidus by more but got nowhere near MM. There were only two real things of note going on here. Firstly, Tidus managed to improve on his performance on Mega Man in 2004, and considering how both characters have seemed to fall off in recent years that couldn't mean anything encouraging for MM. Secondly, Nero pretty much just FOLDED, making him the next in a long line of casual characters to fold against real competition and making Banjo and Olimar look like the next Serious Sam and Mr. Driller.

The important thing to note was the signs for what would happen next match. Unlike L, WCC was looking to have the challenge of a lifetime coming up next round, as Mega Man's easy win coupled with Solid Snake being even stronger made it a heavy underdog. Zero was going to have to make the match just for it to even have a chance.

Match Trends Edit

Graph3284

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis Edit

Match Prediction Edit

Speaking of joke characters...

X-Stats from Round One:

  • WCC - 28.98% (based on Tails '07)
  • Tidus - 28.76% (based on Tails '07)
  • Mega Man - 27.01% (based on Banjo '07)
  • Nero - 17.26% (based on Banjo '07)

Eh, both sets of numbers look pretty bad. Nero has to at least be at the fodder line based on R1, as he was taking advantage of being the only non-Nintendo option there. And there's no way I'm buying Tidus that high no matter what kind of circumstances he had working in his favor.

Alright, let's start with Mega Man. Why in the heck was everyone dancing on his grave (or, that of the whole MM series) a couple weeks back? Sure he was against weak competition, but scoring over 51% in ANY matchup is nothing to sneer at with the way our elite characters were performing that entire round. And MMX had done pretty well for himself also. The only disappointment in my mind was Zero, and even that one I'm not sold on completely... let's see what happens when Snake slithers into the mix tomorrow, because I could still see Zero surviving and advancing there. (heck, even Vivi might!). So yeah, should be a no-doubter of a first place for MM, and I'd have been saying that even before MMX wowed us.

Now then, here's my take on why the Cube is going to disappoint tonight. Last time around he was against three options that, while having huge recognizability, voters were sure to be pretty "meh" on. Heck, even within their own series fanbases people are pretty slow to warm to Tidus, DK, and Tails- you might even call them the black sheep of the family in all three cases. Combined with anti-favoriteFAQs and WCC being a cool new option, I think a ton of voters jumped ship to the joke which resulted in that crazy final score we saw from R1. Since that match jokes have continued to weaken (a trend L-Block did nothing to stop, I might add) and this time Cube has to deal with competition that voters are surely more likely to respond to: MM (with an awesome NES-era logo, great!), Nero (with another full-on "Dante proxy advantage" kind of headshot), and Tidus (who at least has a stronger following than DK/Tails, and who ought to be at his best with this anime look that seems to do well with voters).

That's why I'm confident in taking this upset. MM for the win, and a close second place will be going to Tid-

Nay, can't pull the trigger! I DO think he puts up a better fight than most are calling for, however, and that Nero will at least look respectable while exiting. Bah, if only someone else with REAL fan backing were in contention here, like swapping Auron in for Tidus... but I shouldn't complain, Auron's current placement might deliver a classic for us in just a few days!

So MM >> Cube > Tidus >> Nero, and when those thoughts convert to numbers we get something like

  • Mega Man - 35.11%
  • Weighted Companion Cube - 25.21%
  • Tidus - 23.22%
  • Nero - 16.46%

...bah. Try as I might, I couldn't justify WCC falling under 25. Oh well... go ahead and surprise us, Tidus, I dare you!

Ngamer Says: Mega Man > WCC

Next Day Review Edit

Well shoot, this match was a bit of a dud. WCC's going to lose about 2.5% off R1, but he's still doing a much better job of keeping a static fanbase than I gave him credit for, which is... troubling, to say the least. On the plus side, next up is the sprite round- surely the Cube will look awful there while MM will as always be going in with a major advantage. On top of that, we'll probably be seeing Solid *(&% which ought to allow MM to stick closer to a 50/50 with Snake than normally, further hurting the Cube's chances. The one fly in the ointment would be if Zero advanced to that match alongside MM and held him back enough to put WCC back in contention. Luckily Ryu H easily outlasted Zero back in R1, and we have no reason to bel- *looks back at the last time Snake ran into Ryu H* Oh crap!

External Links Edit

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)

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